Two years ago, Carrie Lam’s approval rating plummeted to around 15%, making her the least popular chief executive in Hong Kong’s postcolonial history. While it has roughly doubled since then, still only about one in three residents support her.

Fortunately for Lam, public opinion hardly matters when it comes to next year’s battle to lead Hong Kong. She’s now considered the front-runner to win another five-year term, with local media calling her the "comeback queen.”

The race all comes down to which candidate can secure the backing of the 1,500 Chinese Communist Party loyalists who are allowed to vote for the city’s leader on March 27, representing some 0.02% of Hong Kong’s population. That’s particularly the case after China overhauled the Election Committee this year to cement its control.