China’s birth control policies could cut between 2.6 million and 4.5 million births among Uyghur and other ethnic minorities in southern Xinjiang within 20 years — up to a third of the region’s projected minority population — according to a new analysis by a German researcher.

The report, shared with Reuters ahead of publication, also includes a previously unreported cache of research produced by Chinese academics and officials on Beijing’s intent behind the birth control policies in Xinjiang, where official data shows birth rates already dropped by 48.7% between 2017 and 2019.

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