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Hong Kong is unlikely to see a major exodus to the U.K. under its new visa program for millions of residents who hold British National (Overseas) passports, with the impact partially offset by new arrivals from mainland China, according to a top government adviser.

The actual number of people departing Hong Kong will be “far, far smaller” than current estimates that as many as 1 million people will leave for the U.K. over the next five years, Bernard Chan, a financier and the convener of Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam’s advisory Executive Council, said on Monday. While the territory has seen people flee during past crises, each time “either they return or there’s new immigrants coming in,” he said.

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