Japan’s sharp economic rebound in the last quarter likely recovered only around half the growth lost during the initial stages of the pandemic, official data is expected to show Monday, with weak business investment contributing to slowing momentum going forward.

Economists see gross domestic product jumping at an annualized pace of 18.9% in the three months through September, helped by improved trade with the United States and China, a comeback for the auto industry and the biggest increase in household spending since the start of the millennium.

That would be the biggest growth spurt since 1968. But it will take three years for GDP to regain its peak before COVID-19 and a 2019 sales tax hike, according to economist Yoshimasa Maruyama at SMBC Nikko Securities. The nation's economy in the April-June period shrank an annualized 27.8% in real terms from the previous quarter.