Angela Merkel and her European allies are preparing to retaliate against Vladimir Putin’s government over the poisoning of one of his top critics, but their plans may not make much of an impression on the Kremlin.

Although countermeasures are all but inevitable, the European Union action may consist of asset freezes and travel bans for Russian officials, according to officials familiar with the discussions. The almost-completed Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Russia and Germany, Putin’s real weak point, is likely to be spared, officials said.

Taking action against security officials would have limited impact in Moscow, although it would be “painful” if major business figures and top officials were targeted, said Ivan Timofeev, an expert from the Russian International Affairs Council, a Kremlin-founded research group.

The finding Tuesday by the top global chemical-weapons watchdog that a banned nerve agent from the Novichok family had been used to poison Alexey Navalny puts the onus on EU policymakers to take action against Putin.

“Any use of chemical weapons is a grave act and cannot go without consequences,” Merkel’s chief spokesman Steffen Seibert said after the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons published its conclusions. “Over the coming days, urgent discussions will take place in the executive council of the OPCW and among EU partners on the next steps to be taken.”

The poisoning of Navalny, who is recovering in Berlin, has returned the focus to Russia’s history of aggression since Putin seized the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine in 2014. Merkel telegraphed the personal importance of the issue by visiting Navalny in the hospital shortly after he woke from a medically induced coma.

German prosecutors say the Russian government was also to blame for a cyberattack on the Bundestag five years ago and a gangland-style killing in a Berlin city park in 2019.

But even though German officials are firmly convinced the attack on Navalny was ordered from the top, it may not be enough to persuade them to ditch the incremental approach which has frustrated allies like the U.S.

The Germans have vowed that any action will be taken in concert with the EU, and European officials have been drawing a distinction between the Navalny affair and the 2018 poisoning of former Russian spy Sergei Skripal, which triggered the coordinated expulsion of more than 150 Russian diplomats.

Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny poses with his wife, Yulia, and their son, Zahar, in an unknown location in Germany.  | INSTAGRAM / @NAVALNY / VIA AP
Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny poses with his wife, Yulia, and their son, Zahar, in an unknown location in Germany. | INSTAGRAM / @NAVALNY / VIA AP

The Skripal attack took place on British soil, whereas Navalny, who fell violently ill on a flight to Moscow in August, was targeted in Russia, the officials said. That may well mean a lesser response since officials are aiming to calibrate their action precisely to ensure it is legally airtight.

And that’s on top of the veto powers that all 27 EU member states have over foreign policy, which makes agreeing on sanctions an exercise in compromise.

Nord Stream 2, the controversial Gazprom project that is set to double the amount of Russian gas directly to Germany under the Baltic Sea, is also probably off the table. The tumultuous debate in Berlin over whether the pipeline should be called into question was effectively quashed by Merkel, who said potential sanctions must be decided on the EU level and wasn’t a bilateral issue with Berlin.

Since then, officials in Berlin have grown dismissive of the notion that the pipeline will be a target. Taking aim at Nord Stream never gained traction within Merkel’s coalition, particularly with the junior partner Social Democrats.

Economy Minister Peter Altmaier, who rarely steps out of line with the chancellery, said he is also opposed to taking measures against the pipeline.

Dietmar Woidke, the SPD premier of the eastern state of Brandenburg, said last week that consumers would rely on Nord Stream, which shouldn’t be in the toolbox for punishing Putin.

“Everything must be done to get Moscow to clarify the Navalny case without reservations — but I’m against saying we end this project to punish Putin,” Woidke said in an interview with Bloomberg News last week in the state capital Potsdam. “We should ask ourselves whether we can do without this project.”

Timofeev said the U.S. could opt for harsher measures, including financial restrictions, pointing out that President Donald Trump’s administration stopped short of targeting the key market for ruble debt in 2019 when it retaliated for the Skripal poisoning.

Russia will also be given a window of opportunity to take its own action after Merkel and others have demanded a full investigation.

Moscow says it has no evidence that Navalny was poisoned and officials have called the case a set-up by western security services, accusing the opposition leader of taking instructions from the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency. Navalny has been released from the hospital and publicly blamed Putin for the attack, a charge the Kremlin called “insulting.”

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