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America’s allies and rivals face a tough choice as Donald Trump trails in polls ahead of November’s presidential election: Wait to see if he loses to presumptive Democratic candidate Joe Biden, or cut deals now to avoid negotiating with an emboldened second-term Trump.The president addressed that dilemma himself in a tweet celebrating the release of an American prisoner, Michael White, from Iran earlier this month.

"Don’t wait until after U.S. Election to make the Big deal,” Trump wrote. "I’m going to win. You’ll make a better deal now!” The administration wielded the same warnings when pressing the World Health Organization during the COVID-19 pandemic for changes in order to get American funding flowing again, according to a person familiar with the discussions. The demand was the same, the person said: commit to reforms aimed at improving transparency and eradicating a perceived bias toward China, or expect to make more painful concessions if Trump is re-elected.

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