Paris – To reopen, or not to reopen with social distancing? That is the question haunting theaters and cinemas that were shuttered overnight by coronavirus lockdowns.
Theatrical impresario Cameron Mackintosh, the legendary British producer behind a half century of hit shows from "Cats" to "Hamilton", said it could be next year before the lights go back on in New York's Broadway and London's West End.
With British actor Stephen Fry warning that it could be as long as next April, Mackintosh said it was impossible for theaters to open their doors again while social distancing measures were still in force.
With some out-of-work actors and musicians on Broadway saying that they were considering to change careers, French star Isabelle Adjani said Tuesday it would be curtains unless governments "declare a cultural emergency".
"We are going to be the last to go back," Mackintosh told BBC radio. "The truth is until social distancing doesn't exist any more, we can't even plan to reopen," he said.
Commercial theater depends on shows being at least two-thirds full as a rule of thumb to keep ticking over.
With people meant to sit up to two meters (6.5 feet) apart, that would mean at least two empty seats around each masked audience member, official French official guidelines recommended Monday.
Such restrictions were socially and economically impossible, producers insisted.
Even in Texas whose governor Greg Abbott has been gung-ho about lifting restrictions, only a tiny number of cinemas grabbed the chance to reopen at the weekend.
Few cinema-goers were tempted to brave the temperature checks at the door, with their screening rooms allowed to be no more than a quarter full.
"We either reopen completely or we don't at all. It's black and white," said French theatrical tycoon Jean-Marc Dumontet, who owns six Paris theaters.
People simply "will not want to go back to the theatre if they feel it is dangerous," he said.
Fry agreed, saying distancing restrictions go against the whole theatrical experience.
"The very quality that makes theatre so thrilling — the united presence of an audience clustered together to experience live performance — is what makes the enterprise so unsuited in a period of necessary social distancing," he said.
Hollywood too is skeptical about a quick return to normal despite U.S. President Donald Trump saying he wanted American cinemas to reopen as soon as possible.
Studios have pushed back the release of most of their big budget "tent-pole" blockbusters until August or later, reluctant to risk them on a still jittery public.
Even so, some Czech cinemas will open next week and German industry body HDF Kino is lobbying for a July restart, saying the lockdown has already cost them €186 million ($201 million).
Some cinema chains in the U.K. — which has been hit much harder by the virus — also want to open in July, although neighboring Ireland is not contemplating a return until mid-August.
While the outlook is bleak for live theater, the major US chain Cinemark believes cinemas can weather the storm — and any recession that might follow.
"Historically the exhibition industry has been recession-resilient and we believe it will rebound and benefit from pent-up demand as home sheltering subsides and people seek a communal experience," it said in a note to investors.
However, it warned that any return to normal "may span multiple months" because of "lingering social distancing" and consumer discomfort with public gatherings.
Despite everything, Cinemark said many cinemas could still make a profit even when two-thirds empty.
Theaters do not have that luxury. With dire warnings of venues going dark and shows closing forever, French President Emmanuel Macron was expected to announce a bail-out for the country's live entertainment sector Wednesday.
In Britain, where theater plays an even bigger role in country's cultural and economic life, the government has so far been silent despite a growing clamor for aid.
With little hope of state help on Broadway, the outlook is even bleaker.
"I think we're all a bit hopeless," said violinist Maxim Moston, who is in the orchestra of the musical "Moulin Rouge."
"I think a lot of people are thinking about other careers at this point."
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