The trade war between the U.S. and China is about to get uglier. After a long, hot summer spent weighing risks and firing warning shots, the hawks in President Donald Trump's administration have gained the upper hand — and they're set to unleash a fall offensive.

Talks in Washington this past week yielded little visible progress toward a cease-fire between the world's two largest economies. Looming instead are new tariffs that Trump has threatened to impose on some $200 billion in annual imports from China, and Beijing's already-promised retaliation.

"We're facing an escalating trade war over the next few months," says David Dollar of the Brookings Institution, who served as the U.S. Treasury's top man in China under the Obama administration.