For the past 18 months, media outlets in Japan and abroad have looked approvingly upon Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's efforts to improve the country's economic future through proactive measures dubbed "Abenomics." The goal is to spur inflation so that companies can make more money and increase pay, thus raising consumption, tax revenues, etc. However, the plan's long-term success relies on one factor that is not at all assured: a stable population.
Local media have reacted with alarm over the results of a study released May 8 by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research that says 49.8 percent of Japan's municipalities will see their populations of women between the ages of 20 and 39 decline by more than half by 2040. Smaller localities may cease to exist because there will be no economic base with which to maintain welfare services, schools and public transportation.
An article in Tokyo Shimbun analyzing the report pointed out that 80 percent of these at-risk municipalities are in five prefectures — Aomori, Iwate, Akita, Yamagata and Shimane — all of which already show lopsided demographics. The portion of elderly is high, and many of the employment opportunities for younger women in these areas are in the medical and nursing fields. As people die and are not replaced, these workers will be compelled to go elsewhere, thus draining the area of women even before they have a chance to get married and settle down. A corollary mission of Abenomics is to get more women into the workforce, and in order to make that happen they will have to go to where the work is — cities.