Imported crude oil prices in Japan may reach $100 per barrel in 2030, up from the current level of around $60 per barrel, driven higher by rising demand in Asia, according to a report by the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan.
If this happens, the resulting economic slowdown would push total demand for energy in Japan roughly 7.5 percent lower in 2030, compared with 2004, according to the report on Japan’s long-term outlook for energy supply and demand released Tuesday.
The report forecasts a drop in crude oil prices to about $45 per barrel in 2010, but prices are expected to bounce back subsequently as global demand rises.
Prices are projected to fall temporarily toward 2010 due to higher oil production in Russia and other countries outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
The forecast is based on an average real economic growth of 3 percent worldwide and 1.5 percent in Japan between 2004 and 2030.
According to the institute’s baseline forecast, crude oil will cost $75 a barrel in 2030. But it added the price may hit $100 per barrel if there is insufficient investment in oil resource development.
In 2030, oil is expected to account for 37 percent of the total primary energy consumption in Japan, down from 47 percent at present, as the country relies more on nuclear energy and natural gas, the institute said.