The Japanese economy is estimated to have expanded at an annualized rate of 1.9 percent in real terms in the third quarter this year, according to nine major economic think tanks.
The figure is the average of their estimates for economic growth in terms of gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation and other seasonal variations. Japan’s potential GDP growth rate is said to be around 2 percent.
In nominal terms, which economists say reflect the economic situation more accurately because they reflect price changes, the annualized pace of growth is estimated at 0.4 percent for the third quarter.
Considering that exports, especially those to the United States, remained level, the nine economic research institutes concluded that overseas demand probably acted as a drag on GDP growth for the first time in eight quarters.
The Financial Research Center of Nomura Securities Co., one of the nine, said the third-quarter GDP data will show a clear slowdown in exports, which have led Japan’s current economic recovery.
Corporate capital spending was estimated by many of the institutes to have grown around 2 percent over the previous quarter, while personal consumption is believed to have increased around 0.5 percent.
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