The Nikkei average on the Tokyo Stock Exchange will probably not move substantially below 10,000 for now.
Indicators and earnings results point to a positive trend.
I believe share prices will rebound, as major electronics makers start releasing their April-June earnings and forecasts for the first half of fiscal 2002.
Investors who sell now may miss the boat.
There are fears of a further drop in U.S. stock prices and a rise in the yen against the dollar. U.S. shares have fallen amid doubts over corporate accounting and earnings prospects, but inventory and job figures do not seem very bad.
Investors are clearly moving to buy back discount shares, suggesting the stock slump has neared its end.
The fact that U.S. authorities are quickly addressing the accounting scandals will also boost market sentiment.
In Japan, there is a possibility that makers of electronics products, precision machinery and automobiles may revise their earning forecasts downward because of the strong yen. But the market has discounted that factor.
As for the supply-demand situation, selling continues as companies unwind their cross-held shares, but individual investors are turning net buyers, and there is room for buying from the public sector.
Investors should pay attention to machinery makers, chemical firms and auto parts suppliers that benefit from brisk exports to China.