Widely known as a feverish operagoer, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi may politely but disappointingly tell an exasperated Chilean President Ricardo Lagos, "Please wait patiently until the fat lady sings."

The two wouldn't be talking about an opera, of course, but about a free-trade agreement that over the past several years Santiago has repeatedly asked Tokyo to conclude.

The problem is that at this point in the story line, Japan is moving very cautiously toward forming FTAs.

The hesitant approach itself is a significant departure from decades of adhering to a go-it-alone policy, but the plot isn't likely to involve Chile in the near future.

At the moment, Mexico is the only Western Hemispheric country Japan has talked with about the possibility of signing an FTA.

In a report to be released later this month, a joint study group of Japanese and Mexican government and private-sector experts are expected to call for the two countries to open FTA negotiations. This will pave the way for Koizumi and President Vicente Fox to formally declare the start of negotiations in October, when they meet during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum's summit in Mexico.

But that does not guarantee success. To be sure, there are still strong objections from Japan's influential farm lobby and politicians elected from agricultural constituencies.

Annual trade between Japan and Mexico totaled $7.6 billion in 2000, the latest year for which figures are available, with Japan exporting $5.2 billion worth of goods while importing $2.4 billion worth. Farm imports, led by pork, one of the most sensitive and heavily protected products in Japan, accounted for over 20 percent of the total.

Whether those protections can survive an FTA with Mexico is questionable; the rules of the World Trade Organization, the Geneva-based watchdog on global commerce, stipulate that any FTA must "substantially cover all trade" among FTA partners.

Domestic pressure, meanwhile, is also building. Concerns over the negative impact of market liberalization on the farm industry are being outweighed by worries about a loss of international competitiveness for the entire economy.

So FTA negotiations with Mexico, a major manufacturing base for products to be exported to the United States, will begin as concerns grow among Japanese companies about being kept at a competitive disadvantage vis-a-vis their American and European rivals in an increasingly globalizing trade arena.

These concerns began percolating in 2001, when Mexico abolished its Maquiladoras. Under the system, Japanese and other foreign companies that opened factories, "maquiladoras," along the U.S. border were permitted to import raw materials and parts tariff-free.

Mexico has already concluded FTAs with some 30 trading partners. The North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA, which encompasses the U.S., Canada and Mexico, took effect in January 1994. The FTA between Mexico and the 15-nation European Union also was put into place in July 2000.

Now that Mexico is poised to become the first Japanese FTA partner in the Western Hemisphere as early as 2004, the spotlight -- sooner or later -- is likely to widen to take in Chile.

But that may not happen for several years; Chile is not high on Japan's list of FTA priorities, primarily because of the low volume of trade between the two countries.

In 2000, the value of trade between Japan and Chile was $3.5 billion -- an amount dwarfed by Japan's more than $40 billion in trade with South Korea and $120 billion with the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

Another reason is that Chile is a major exporter of agricultural and marine products. Of the $3.5 billion in bilateral trade, Japanese exports accounted for $659 million and imports amounted to $2.848 billion. Roughly 25 percent of Chile's exports to Japan were agricultural and marine products, like salmon, trout, sea urchins and grapes.

It's also worth mentioning that Japan has only recently begun to write its FTA libretto. It wasn't until January that the world's second largest economy signed its first FTA, with Singapore -- a country that produces and exports almost no farm products.

That agreement has yet to go into effect.

Since signing the Singapore FTA, Japan has started a full-fledged feasibility study on concluding similar deals with South Korea and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, a move that is partly aimed at countering China's growing economic influence in East Asia.

In November, China and ASEAN agreed to form an FTA within the decade.

The feasibility study is the beginning of a long, drawn-out process, and FTA negotiations between Japan and South Korea are at least two years away.

Any such deal would not come until 2005 at the earliest.

It is also becoming clear that Japan is seeking separate FTAs with some individual ASEAN members -- namely Thailand and the Philippines -- before pursuing an ASEAN-wide FTA. This is because Japan harbors concerns about the disparity of economic levels among ASEAN nations. ASEAN includes such poorer members as Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam and Myanmar.

If there is an FTA strategy at all, Japan appears to be giving first priority to Mexico, second to South Korea and third to ASEAN.

Several other economies -- Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan, Brazil, Canada and Chile -- are on Japan's to-do list, but these partnership candidates have yet to be clearly prioritized.

Even if actually launched, FTA negotiations with any of the top three priority nations would be quite tough because of the sensitive agriculture and maritime products issues.

"Because of limited human capacity," one senior trade official grumbled, "it would be very difficult, even impossible, to hold FTA negotiations with so many countries simultaneously."

According to diplomatic sources, Chilean President Lagos, who took office in May 2000, plans to make his first official visit to Japan around February, during which he is expected to renew calls to open FTA negotiations.

It is very unlikely, however, that Koizumi will promise to open formal FTA negotiations with Chile. Therefore, the attention will be focused on whether Koizumi will go so far as agreeing to set up a panel of government and private-sector experts -- similar to those Japan established with Mexico, South Korea and ASEAN -- to conduct a feasibility study.

There are many proponents of an FTA with Chile within the Japanese government, especially at the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. Indeed, the Japan External Trade Organization, a quasigovernmental body affiliated with METI, released a study report in June 2001 calling for an FTA agreement.

The JETRO report points out that Japan would have a lot to gain from an FTA with Chile, a country widely known for aggressive market liberalization and perceived as a strategically important gateway to NAFTA and the Mercosur customs union -- and even to the whole of the Western Hemisphere.

Chile has so far concluded FTAs with 16 countries. After concluding FTAs with Canada and Mexico, it is now negotiating an FTA with the third NAFTA member, the U.S.

Chile is also an associate member of Mercosur, the customs union that took effect in January 1995 with Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay as formal members.

In addition, all Western Hemispheric countries but Cuba have agreed to create the Free Trade Area of the Americas, or FTAA, by the end of 2005. Chile is also in FTA negotiations with the EU and South Korea.

In Japan, meanwhile, frustration is beginning to show.

Said one government proponent of an FTA with Chile: "Imported salmon is already subject to a very low tariff of 3.5 percent. Half of the salmon sold in Japan is already imported, and nearly 40 percent of imported salmon come from Chile.

"There are only 100 salmon-breeding households in Japan, and they are concentrated in the northeastern Japan. It would be quite strange if Japan does not conclude an FTA with Chile just to protect such a small number of salmon-breeding households."