The Tokyo stock market is seeking its downside, with the 225-issue Nikkei average plunging close to 10,000 amid concern over global economic and corporate earnings prospects.
Uncertainty has increased over the U.S. economic outlook. In August, for example, consumer confidence weakened from the previous month, betraying earlier expectations that it would pick up thanks to tax cuts.
But the subsequently released National Association of Purchasing Management's monthly index shows the largest growth in manufacturing activity since June 1996, confirming that the U.S. manufacturing industry is starting to bottom out.
Nevertheless, market sentiment remains weak due to worsening near-term earnings of high-tech companies and waning expectations of a pickup in demand for their products.
In particular, the tech-heavy Nasdaq market has yet to find incentives for a rebound. With market participants paying stronger attention to a slump in consumer spending, stock trading will continue to be greatly affected by economic data.
Investors should closely watch whether the U.S. employment data released Friday and retail sales data due this Friday will wipe out uncertainty about personal consumption.
The Tokyo market will this month stay under the heavy influence of overseas conditions, and the key Nikkei average will test its downside at around 10,000.
September is expected to be the last phase of current price adjustments for a number of reasons. One is that the market is starting to discount downward revisions of corporate earnings projections while political debate on economic policies is gathering steam.
In addition, share sales for book-closing purposes will run their course at the end of the fiscal first half on Sep. 30.
Although high-tech stocks have made substantial price adjustments, their upturns will be limited in light of weak demand.
After the Tokyo market rebounds, investor attention will focus on businesses expected to benefit from the government's policy of reviving Japan and those improving their competitiveness through strategic restructures.
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