Experts on Japanese-U.S. relations broadly see George W. Bush's victory in the U.S. presidential election as a good sign for Tokyo, as the Republican Party places relatively strong importance on Japan in its Asia policy, and the new administration is expected to take a less-confrontational approach to trade relations.

But some experts also said Bush's anticipated emphasis on the alliance with Japan will mean that Tokyo will be required to play a greater role in its ownsecurity.

Trade officials are concerned that, after the legal wrangling that kept the presidency undecided for weeks and split America along party lines, Bush may be kept busy with domestic politics and fail to pay sufficient heed to diplomatic concerns in the immediate future.

Bush begins his presidency with a Republican-controlled Congress, which may ensure a more stable relationship between the president and the legislature than under Democrat Bill Clinton. But the Republican majority over the Democrats has narrowed to a slim margin as a result of the election.

"Ill feelings (between Republicans and Democrats) are likely to remain. We hope the new administration embarks on a national reconciliation and starts looking to the world as soon as possible," a senior official of the Ministry of International Trade and Industry said.

Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori is expected to visit Washington early next year to smooth ties with the new Bush administration.

In the realm of bilateral relations, experts predict that Bush will seek stronger security ties with Japan, in contrast with the apparent focus on China by the Clinton administration.

During his campaign, Bush described China as a strategic rival and made the U.S. security alliance with Japan the pillar of his policy for Asia. Democratic rival Al Gore, on the other hand, described China as a partner and mentioned Japan only rarely.

Hisahiko Okazaki, a former career diplomat and director of the Okazaki Institute, called the Republican victory "good news" and said it will lead to a government favorable to Japan.

Okazaki said many of the staff who worked with Japan to win the Cold War under the administrations of Republican Presidents Ronald Reagan and George Bush Sr. are expected to exercise their influence in the new administration.

In fact, key members of the Bush campaign team played important roles in his father's administration, which included Vice President-elect Dick Cheney as secretary of defense, Colin Powell as chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Richard Armitage as Asian affairs adviser.

"They feel close to Japan as comrades of the Cold War," Okazaki said, adding that Clinton literally downplayed Japan by shifting attention to China.

As is often the case with a new president, Bush, as the first Republican in the White House in eight years, will probably want to start out by emphasizing the differences between his policies and those of Clinton.

If Bush wants to differentiate himself from Clinton, he will attempt to show that he is closer to Tokyo than Clinton was, said Bruce Stokes, senior fellow at the Washington-based Council on Foreign Relations.

Japan 'keystone' in policy

Anticipating how U.S. policy toward Japan will shape up, Okazaki said special attention should be paid to a recent report issued by a bipartisan group of Asia policy experts, including Armitage and Joseph Nye, a former Asia adviser to Clinton.

The report makes Japan the "keystone" of U.S. policy in Asia and calls for the bilateral security alliance to be strengthened by enabling Japan to engage in collective defense and to participate fully in United Nations peacekeeping operations.

"Japan's prohibition against collective self-defense is a constraint on alliance cooperation," the report says. "Washington must make clear that it welcomes a Japan that is willing to make a greater contribution and to become a more equal alliance partner."

Okazaki warned that friction might arise if Japan fails to respond to calls for stronger security ties. "Because the expectations are high, U.S. frustration would be bigger if Japan does not respond," he said.

Motofumi Asai, a professor of international relations at Meiji Gakuin University, said the bipartisan report was carefully released in October -- just in time for the election -- so the authors' views would be reflected in the new government, regardless of who won.

"They want to set a direction for Japanese-U.S. relations," Asai said. "Their basic idea is to make Japan revise its Constitution and strengthen the military alliance."

According to Asai, Washington's primary concern in Asia will be an emergency in the Taiwan Strait and uncertainties lingering on the Korean Peninsula, despite recent positive developments.

From the U.S. perspective, it is essential for Japan to amend its Constitution so it can engage in collective defense activities, he said. "They are looking for the right timing to raise the issue before dangerous situations develop in areas surrounding Japan."

Troops to remain in Asia

Precisely because of these concerns, the Bush administration is likely to keep 100,000 U.S. troops forward-deployed to East Asia, according to Atsushi Kusano, a professor at Keio University.

Kusano says the recent thaw on the Korean Peninsula is "just the beginning of a process of solving problems," with China also seen as a potential threat.

"Practically speaking, the United States cannot change the 100,000-troop framework because countries like Indonesia, the Philippines and Cambodia are feeling threatened by China and want the U.S. presence in Asia as a counterbalance," Kusano said.

While their overall presence in Asia will not change, U.S. forces in Okinawa may be consolidated and reduced in line with the 1996 report by the bilateral Special Action Committee on Okinawa, Kusano said.

However, he said the U.S. will not accept a local request to set a 15-year limit on use of a new airfield to be constructed in Nago, northern Okinawa. The new joint military-civilian airport in Nago is meant to take over the heliport operations of the U.S. Marine Corps Futenma Air Station, which was to be returned within five to seven years under the SACO report.

"When nobody knows how the international situation can change in 15 years, it is nonsense for the U.S. to accept a deadline on such a strategically important facility," Kusano said.

The stalemate over the 15-year limit, which Okinawa Prefecture and Nago have set as the condition for hosting the new U.S. military facility, has effectively stalled the airport project, thus keeping Futenma's return up in the air.

On economic relations, many experts predict that Bush will maintain relative calm in dealing with Tokyo, while pushing for deregulation and structural reforms here.

Takeshi Kondo, director of the Center for Research and International Affairs, predicted that Bush will push Japan to continue deregulation and structural reforms and help integrate the two economies.

"The basic trend of the current Japanese-U.S. relationship is to integrate their economies. Actions toward that end will continue and be accelerated under Bush," Kondo said.

No Tokyo scapegoat

Even if the U.S. economy loses steam, it is hard to imagine that Washington will start blaming Tokyo for what they see as unfair trade practices and closed markets, said Tetsuro Sugiura, chief economist at Fuji Research Institute Corp.

"There is no doubt that the trade deficit with Japan will become more conspicuous in the eyes of the American people when the U.S. economy slows down and stock prices fall. But it is widely known (by U.S. experts) that the deficits with Japan are the byproduct of a strong U.S. economy and that a U.S. slowdown will decrease the deficits with Japan," Sugiura said.

He pointed out that Japan and the U.S. have maintained relative calm on trade issues in recent years, even though the U.S. trade deficit with Japan in 1999 reached $73.9 billion, up 35.4 percent from 1996.

There may be persistent fear on Japan's part that it could be pressured to continue taking stimulus steps if a slowdown in U.S. demand starts to hurt the global economy and consequently affect American growth. In that case, Sugiura said, Japan may have few options left because increasing fiscal spending on public works would incur criticism from taxpayers and there is little room for credit-easing.

But he predicts that pressure from Washington would not be serious, because a U.S. slowdown, which he said has already begun, is likely to result in a soft landing.

On the other hand, experts predict that friction in certain industrial sectors will not escalate into serious trade wars.

"A spate of sectorial friction is unavoidable when the two economies become interdependent. However, the World Trade Organization, serving as a dispute-settlement mechanism, will prevent those disputes from developing into serious political issues (between the two countries)," Kondo said.

On top of the dispute-settlement role played by the WTO, many believe that deepening exchanges in terms of direct investment and trade between the two nations makes it difficult for Washington to take tough action against Tokyo.

"The (two) economies have become so integrated that if (the U.S.) takes one action, it would hurt domestically," said Robert Grondine, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Japan.

Kondo, of the Center for Research and International Affairs, said there are emerging moves in both Japan and the U.S. to try to institutionalize efforts to bring their economic systems closer. He suggested that such moves may lead to the creation of a new mechanism, for example, to harmonize regulations in investment and promote labor mobility.

"Some people in Japan and the U.S. say that the two countries should explore the possibility of forming a bilateral free-trade agreement," Kondo said. "I don't think an FTA would be a policy of the new administration, but it is notable that such an atmosphere is rising."