For the first time in 14 years, the typhoon season is drawing to a close without a single typhoon making a direct hit on Japan. Meteorologists say this is a fluke, however, and not a sign of abnormal weather conditions.
According to the Meteorological Agency, the latest seasonal arrival on record was in 1990, when a typhoon struck the archipelago on Nov. 30.
Given the low probability of a typhoon hitting Japan in December, agency officials said it looks like the nation will be spared a hit for the first time since 1986.
According to agency officials, the average number of typhoons in any given year is 27.8 -- or 26.6 if measured at the end of November.
An average 2.8 typhoons hit somewhere in Japan each year, while an average 11 churn to within 300 km of the four main islands, Okinawa and other outlying islands.
While the number of typhoons spawned so far this year -- 22 -- is lower than the norm, the number of those approaching the archipelago was higher, at 15.
"The weakness of the prevailing westerly winds over Japan may have caused the typhoons to move north without changing direction eastward from the Sea of Japan," an agency official said.
The typhoons moved relatively slowly this year, they added, noting that Typhoon No. 14 in September generated warm air currents into the autumn rain front and dumped a record amount of rain on the Tokai region.
According to Meteorological Agency records, 1998 had the lowest number of typhoons at 16, and the number has been dropping during the 1990s.
According to a computer simulation conducted by the agency, the force of individual typhoons is stronger but their number is fewer as global warming continues.
However, the implication of changing climatic conditions on typhoons is far from clear, because other computer simulations have yielded opposite results.