Speculation about the end of Iran’s Islamic Republic has surged in the wake of Israel’s astonishingly effective bombing campaign, which succeeded in degrading and destroying much of Iran’s offensive capability in just under two weeks.
Some commentators, like the economist Nouriel Roubini and the Stanford political scientist Abbas Milani, see regime change as plausible or imminent. Others, like the strategist Richard Haass, argue that the necessary preconditions for a democratic breakthrough are still absent.
A third group does not advocate regime change at all. While they find aspects of the Islamic Republic objectionable, they largely regard Iran as an aggrieved postcolonial state struggling for autonomy and dignity. Figures such as the exiled Iranian scholars Djavad Salehi-Isfahani and Esfandyar Batmanghelidj have expressed variations of this view.
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