"Manned fighter jets are obsolete in the era of drones," Elon Musk, the world's richest man and until recently head of the U.S. Department of Government Efficiency, posted on his social-media platform X last November. He even shared a video showing small drones flying in formation, captioned: “Meanwhile, some idiots are still building manned fighter jets like the F-35,” a plane whose cost-effectiveness he also criticized.
The Russia-Ukraine war offers compelling evidence for Musk’s views. Russia had lost more than 400 manned aircraft, including its latest Su-35 fighters and A-50 airborne early warning and control aircraft. And just last month, Ukraine successfully targeted Russia's long-range bomber fleet by surprise drone attacks, destroying around 40 planes, according to some estimates, and causing damage in the billions. In the nearly three and half years since the invasion began on Feb. 24, 2022, Russia has never gained air superiority. Drones and missiles have largely replaced fighter jets in combat operations. And despite its airpower disadvantage, the Ukrainian military has used air defense systems, man-portable anti-aircraft missiles and other weapons to good effect, forcing a stalemate on the ground.
The events in Ukraine have ignited a fierce debate among U.S. Air Force strategists, dividing them into the "air superiority" camp and the "air denial" camp. With budget constraints and quality issues plaguing the Air Force and a potential Taiwan contingency looming, how will the U.S. counter China's increasingly capable military?
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