The geography of employment in the U.S. is being shaped by two distinct trends. The first is low levels of housing churn and, therefore, interstate migration, a normal part of the business cycle that should eventually turn around. More consequential are signs that artificial intelligence is beginning to suppress hiring in some of the most technology-centric parts of the country such as the San Francisco Bay Area — a shift that may portend a structural change in the labor market.
This is a useful time to look at changes in employment growth in different parts of the country and compare these with the pre-pandemic economy, since overall job growth is currently only a touch lower than it was in 2019. U.S. employment grew 1.2% in April from a year earlier, close to the 1.3% growth seen in 2019.
Let’s start with the reduced migration from cold states to warm states that is showing up in the employment data of the metros most affected. House prices are a useful proxy for interstate migration. The two large metros with the weakest home price growth are Dallas, Texas, and Tampa, Florida, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices. Employment in Dallas grew 1.4% in March from a year earlier, roughly half its 2019 pace, while in Tampa, it grew just 0.9%, a third of its 2019 pace. Reduced outmigration from the Northeast and Midwest, on the other hand, helps explain why job growth is above the pre-pandemic pace in Buffalo, New York and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
With your current subscription plan you can comment on stories. However, before writing your first comment, please create a display name in the Profile section of your subscriber account page.