Why Ishiba pulled a 180 on the gaffe-stricken farm minister

First, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said he was not going to fire agriculture minister Taku Eto over a gaffe related to soaring rice costs. Then, the very next day, news breaks that Ishiba will be replacing Eto, marking the first minister to fall since the Cabinet formed last October.

That was quite the whiplash decision-making from the prime minister, which raises the question: What prompted the flip-flop? More importantly, what does it tell us about the political dynamics in Tokyo right now?

These are important questions heading into a politically contentious summer. There are two notable elections forthcoming. The first is the Tokyo assembly elections, which are largely seen as a bellwether for the more important election that will follow shortly thereafter. That election is for the Upper House of the parliament, and it is to occur sometime around July. After a poor showing in last year’s snap election for the Lower House, the outcome of the general election will serve as the single most important determinant of whether Ishiba can last a full year as Japan’s prime minister.

Prospects for Ishiba and the ruling Liberal Democratic Party in these elections are already grim. Public opinion for both the prime minister and his party continue to trend downward, reaching their lowest points during his seven-month tenure in the job. Although promising a new type of leadership that addresses systemic problems in Japanese politics while improving life for the average Japanese household, Ishiba has had the same kind of middling performance that has plagued many of his predecessors in the job.

While a complete change in government is unlikely, the ruling party is set to lose even more of its grip on the already tenuous minority control it wields in the legislature. Further, another failed general election under Ishiba’s leadership will inevitably result in a leadership change atop the ruling party as it seeks to regroup under new branding.

So, what does all this have to do with the agriculture minister?

Something that no prime minister wants while dealing with substantive policy issues is to have a Cabinet minister get in front of cameras and say something outrageous. Eto did just that.

While addressing an audience at an LDP fundraiser, Eto downplayed the ongoing crisis over soaring rice prices, stating that he never has to buy rice because his supporters give him so much of it — to the point that he could sell it. Considering that the cost of this staple food has doubled since last year with no immediate solution in sight, Eto’s comments drummed up furor for not just being tone deaf, but out-of-touch.

This created a conundrum for Ishiba. Eto was by no means a close ally of Ishiba, having voted for the more conservative Sanae Takaichi in the previous LDP presidential election; however, he was still one of Ishiba’s Cabinet appointees. For better or worse, Ishiba also owns what those appointees do and when one of them commits a gaffe, it is on the prime minister to decide whether to back them or push them out.

There are several considerations for the prime minister in these situations. Will kicking the minister out show weakness in the face of opposition? Will keeping the official aggravate public ill will? Who will replace the person? What are the opinions of the other heavyweights in the ruling party?

When Ishiba first fielded questions from the media about his decision on Eto, he was unlikely to have answered all these questions in his own mind. Rather, he simply stated that he needed Eto focused on resolving the ongoing rice crisis.

But, as many things tend to do in Japanese politics, deliberations on the way ahead extended into the late night hours and away from the public eye. Less than 24 hours later, the decision changed to removing Eto and replacing him with future prime minister-hopeful Shinjiro Koizumi.

What changed during that time?

First, it is clear that Eto was not going to turn things around. Eto has thus far bungled the response to soaring rice prices and he was not suddenly on the cusp of a breakthrough. Keeping him on would have only proven his detractors correct, as he failed to gain any traction on a complex problem.

Second, the opposition parties were considering leveraging Eto’s remarks in a no-confidence motion. With a minority government and others in the LDP ready for a leadership change, Ishiba could not guarantee that he could gather enough votes to block the motion. While kicking out a minister to placate opposition demands may seem weak, it is nothing compared to the prospects of losing a no-confidence motion.

Third, Ishiba’s own position atop the government is already tenuous heading into the summer elections. His opponent in the last LDP presidential race, Takaichi, is already making plans to succeed Ishiba and she currently leads in polling among the Japanese public for who they want to be the next prime minister. Ishiba needed to take action that bolsters support for his Cabinet and garners intraparty backing, so he turned to fan favorite Koizumi.

This situation presented a unique opportunity for Koizumi. As agriculture minister, he will have the opportunity to extend his reach into rural constituencies typically dominated by much more conservative LDP politicians like Takaichi (who hails from Nara Prefecture). Further, he has a chance to tackle a substantive issue with real impacts on Japanese households and to erase, once and for all, the black mark he received in 2019 when he was environment minister and stated that the solution to climate change was to “make it sexy.”

In some ways, this is a risky move for Ishiba. Koizumi does not have a proven track record of success as a minister and the problems facing the agriculture ministry are both challenging and carry implications for the forthcoming elections. Meanwhile, Koizumi also has designs for becoming the next prime minister, so elevating him now may inadvertently be giving a boost to his own successor.

Given the political climate, this risk was something Ishiba had to take. Had he held firm on his original announcement, Eto would have exacerbated the Cabinet’s downward slide in the polls. While it is uncertain whether Koizumi will have any success, Ishiba can try to co-opt the younger politician as he weathers the forthcoming election storms. Ishiba will not have to wait long before finding out whether this risk pays off.