First, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said he was not going to fire agriculture minister Taku Eto over a gaffe related to soaring rice costs. Then, the very next day, news breaks that Ishiba will be replacing Eto, marking the first minister to fall since the Cabinet formed last October.
That was quite the whiplash decision-making from the prime minister, which raises the question: What prompted the flip-flop? More importantly, what does it tell us about the political dynamics in Tokyo right now?
These are important questions heading into a politically contentious summer. There are two notable elections forthcoming. The first is the Tokyo assembly elections, which are largely seen as a bellwether for the more important election that will follow shortly thereafter. That election is for the Upper House of the parliament, and it is to occur sometime around July. After a poor showing in last year’s snap election for the Lower House, the outcome of the general election will serve as the single most important determinant of whether Ishiba can last a full year as Japan’s prime minister.
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