North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has publicly promised the United States a "Christmas present," which will presumably be a provocative act designed to demonstrate Pyongyang's frustration and annoyance. It will also be aimed at pressuring the U.S. and its allies to capitulate to Pyongyang's demands for some immediate sanctions relief before the North's arbitrarily imposed deadline at the end of this year. Meanwhile, the North Korean ambassador to the United Nations, Kim Song, said Dec. 7 that the negotiations sought by the U.S. were only a "time-saving trick," adding ominously that denuclearization is off the negotiating table. U.S.-North Korea negotiations have irrefutably stalled.

Leading up to this point, North Korea has also been conducting increasingly provocative short-range missile tests. So far, Washington has played them down to avoid corroding the negotiating atmosphere. This, despite statements by senior Japanese officials — not to mention then-national security adviser John Bolton, among others — that these tests are in clear violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions.

Recent North Korean testing at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station — the exact facility that Kim, at his first summit with U.S. President Donald Trump, promised would be disabled — is another escalatory move. The rapid resuscitation of Sohae also demonstrates the ephemeral nature of North Korean "concessions" to date.