The first Grand Sumo Tournament of 2024, which gets underway Sunday at the Kokugikan in Tokyo, could hasten significant change at the top of the sport.
Four years ago, in the last meet that took place before the COVID-19 pandemic forced sumo to close its doors to fans for an entire tournament and limit attendance for several afterward, Hakuho and Kakuryu stood atop the rankings, while Kirishima (then known as Kiribayama) was a 23-year-old making his top division debut.
Twenty four tournaments later, both of those grand champions have since retired and become stablemasters, while the 2020 makuuchi rookie stands on the verge of promotion to yokozuna himself.
Although names from near the top of the banzuke half a decade ago such as Terunofuji, Takakeisho, and Asanoyama — as well as many of the journeymen that have populated sumo’s upper echelons for years — are still around, there is an air of freshness to the makuuchi division in recent times.
If Kirishima follows up his 12-3 championship in November with another title this month, he’ll almost certainly be promoted to the sport’s highest rank, and that in turn could spur Terunofuji to call time on what has been an incredible career.
A new yokozuna, especially if he is the only man at the rank, essentially ushers in a new era.
There are questions as to whether or not he can manage the feat, but Kirishima is still just 27 years old and continues to show improvement year on year. The Ulaanbaatar native seems to be a good bet to grab the opportunity being presented and become the sixth Mongolian-born wrestler to attain the white rope.
Of course, Terunofuji has shown an ability to return from a lengthy absence and dominate the field in the past, so the possibility of a ninth Emperor’s Cup later this month for the Isegahama stable veteran can’t be ruled out.
Should that happen it would leave Terunofuji one championship short of the double digit total that always puts a yokozuna’s legacy onto a different level in discussions of history and greatness, and could actually spur the 32-year-old to continue fighting for most or all of 2024.
It’s always hard to discern much from joint practice sessions that take place prior to meets, but the fact that Terunofuji was training with ozeki-level competition is significant. Just how well his body will hold up to the rigors of a 15-day tournament is impossible to know, but, barring a new injury, he should be present for at least the first four or five days.
Those ozeki ranks could be bolstered by the arrival of a new man — with a new name — come the end of January.
Kotonowaka has posted a winning record in every tournament since being elevated to the sanyaku ranks a year ago. With 11 wins in two of the past three meets sandwiching a 9-6 outing in September, the Sadogatake stable wrestler is poised to reach the sport’s second-highest rank.
Promotion to ozeki would likely mean a switch from the ring name used by his father to that belonging to his grandfather.
As well as being a son of a former sekiwake called Kotonowaka, the 26-year-old is also the grandson of former yokozuna Kotozakura. A change of ring name to something with more historical import or significance upon promotion to ozeki has plenty of precedent in the sumo world.
Kotonowaka taking up the moniker of a man who gained a level of fame overseas after appearing in the James Bond movie “You Only Live Twice” is a virtual certainty if he makes ozeki.
Further down the rankings, Atamifuji’s heroics in September and November have put the Shizuoka Prefecture native into the top maegashira slot for the January meet.
Hopefully the heartbreaking late losses that snatched away title glory in the past two tournaments haven’t taken a toll on the 21-year-old.
If one of the division's youngest and brightest hopes bounce back and make it third time lucky, it’ll delight most casual sumo fans.
Top division debutant Onosato comes from a collegiate background so decorated that it’s hard to call the former amateur yokozuna an unknown quantity.
Despite only being in professional sumo for seven months, and never having faced makuuchi-level opposition, Onosato can’t be ruled out as a dark-horse contender this month.
Back-to-back 12-3 outings in the second-tier jūryō division for the Nippon Sport Science University graduate came against slates filled with former top division wrestlers. At the rank of maegashira 15 this time out, Onosato has a good chance to be atop the leaderboard by the midway point.
As a disciple of former yokozuna Kisenosato, Onosato seems poised to act as a bulwark to the deep stable of talent being amassed by another ex-grand champion — Hakuho — at Miyagino stable.
One of that group (Hakuoho) came close last year to being the first debutant to lift the Emperor’s Cup in 109 years. Onosato actually succeeding in that quest would send shockwaves through the sumo world and get 2024 off to a flying start.
While the sport awaits the arrival of a new yokozuna or the breakthrough of one of its rising stars, the destination of the Emperor’s Cup remains difficult to predict.
Ten of the 42 men that make up sumo’s top tier this month already know what it’s like to claim a championship. That’s atypical for sumo and brings an element of excitement to every meet that wasn't common in decades past.
Promotion possibilities, a returning grand champion, and the rise of potential superstars are the main storylines as the hatsu basho approaches. Two weeks hence, names that have hardly been mentioned, such as Abi, Asanoyama, Daieisho — or any one of half a dozen other candidates — could be standing ringside doing a championship interview.
Regardless of who eventually emerges victorious, the 2024 January tournament is set up to be another wild ride.
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