The recent mutiny attempt by Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenary army has undoubtedly weakened Vladimir Putin personally: He publicly promised a forceful response and a harsh punishment for the "traitors,” then accepted a compromise brokered by Belarussian dictator Alexander Lukashenko and allowed Prigozhin to leave the country unpunished, with pretty much his entire force.

The more important question, however, is whether the turbulence has weakened the system that runs Russia.

Alexey Navalny, the jailed Russian opposition leader who has never led a violent riot, wrote in a Twitter thread that he learned of Prigozhin’s escapade while on trial for a seemingly endless list of offenses against the government: