COMMENTARY / World

How the Ukraine offensive will shift the market narrative

Caution is advised as war, by its nature, is very fluid — making economic predictions difficult

The implications of a resurgent and possibly victorious Ukraine are hard to gauge. But investors are buying up put protections to mitigate risk at a rate not seen since the worst weeks of the 2008 Lehman Brothers crisis. | REUTERS

By John Authers
Bloomberg

Sep 14, 2022

The Ukrainian armed forces appear (and I emphasize appear) to have taught the rest of the world yet another lesson in the need to be cautious about knowing what we know.

If the reports of the last few days are correct, then the chances of a Ukrainian "victory” have risen sharply, just as have the chances that the war’s aftermath will at last lead to the downfall of Vladimir Putin in Russia.

The odds on a lengthy stalemate that can mostly be ignored by the rest of the world (a sort of wider-scale version of the situation that had adhered since Russia’s first incursions into the Donbas in 2014) do appear to have been reduced.

How the Ukraine offensive will shift the market narrative

Caution is advised as war, by its nature, is very fluid — making economic predictions difficult

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