Industrial China is alive and well despite concerns of an economic slowdown. It just doesn’t look like it did before — or at least, what everyone is used to.
Recent data this month has shown a dismal picture: Industrial output rose 3.8% from a year earlier, which was below expectations, fixed investment grew slower than forecast and credit, usually a sign the economy is pushing through, was weak. Property sector figures, long taken as an indication that authorities were going to keep developers’ debt-fueled building extravaganza on course, were depressing all around. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its gross domestic product forecast for China’s economy, lowering its projection for this year to 3% from 3.3% earlier.
Other numbers, though, paint a different picture: Beijing’s priority areas are doing just fine. China electric vehicle battery installations increased by 114% while EV production and sales both grew by over 100% in July. Overall suppliers’ delivery times are currently well above the average level since January 2020, but for emerging industries that include high-end equipment manufacturing, EVs and other sectors have risen sharply over the past few months. In addition, despite what the sentiment surveys tell you, foreign direct investment into China’s high-tech manufacturing increased 31.1% in the first six months of the year. South Korean investment climbed 37.2%, while the U.S. was up 26.1%.