Now what? Just when we thought things were getting better, North Korea pulled the rug out from under everyone, including itself, by announcing a planned satellite launch to commemorate Great Leader Kim Il Sung's 100th birthday celebration.

Pyongyang (pretends to) believe that there is a difference between long-range ballistic missile tests (which it recently foreswore) and satellite launches using the same launch vehicle; a distinction lost on most others, very specifically including the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), which has banned "all missile activity" by North Korea, including "any launch using ballistic missile technology."

So what is Pyongyang up to? Nobody knows for sure, of course, but many are speculating that the contradiction between its Feb. 29 declaration of a moratorium on nuclear and missile tests and the satellite launch announcement reflects a power struggle between the foreign ministry and the military and party leadership. That's possible, but recall that the Leap Day announcement came a week after bilateral U.S.-North Korean negotiations; the foreign ministry had plenty of time to vet the agreement.