The perennial conflict between Iran and the West has entered a dangerous new phase, with tensions rising in the Persian Gulf since Iran has threatened retaliation for last week's assassination of a chemical engineer linked to the Islamic Republic's nuclear program. What accounts for Iran's behavior? Behind all the sound and fury, Tehran is diligently pursuing a three-track policy that involves provocation of the international community and making noises about diplomacy as it relentlessly marches toward the bomb.
In recent months, the Islamic Republic has engaged in conduct that has confounded even its most seasoned observers. Shortly after a critical International Atomic Energy Agency report published in November was followed by threats of sanctions by the European Union, Basij militias masquerading as students stormed the British embassy in Tehran. Washington's recent attempt to restrict Iran's oil trade by sanctioning its Central Bank prompted Tehran's threat to destabilize the global economy by closing the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway through which a sixth of the world's oil passes.
Such bellicose actions are a departure for a regime that has long exercised a modicum of restraint in its belligerence. Indeed, such behavior makes sense only if we appreciate that Iran sees itself as locked in conflict with the West and is determined to respond to recent escalations in U.S. policy with escalations of its own. Mas'ud Jazayeri, the deputy chief of staff of Iran's armed forces, said in December that new guidelines for the armed forces from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei include that, "from now on, we will make threats against threats." Iran hopes that its unsettling conduct will prompt Russia, China and members of the non-aligned community who fear war to defy U.S. efforts to tighten sanctions.