In the July 11 Upper House election, the opposition Democratic Party of Japan made dramatic gains, winning more seats than the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (50-49). The DPJ also surpassed the LDP in the proportional representation bloc of November's general election. With the two parties dominating both houses of the Diet, it is more likely than ever that the Democrats will take over the reins of government from the Liberal Democrats.
Under the circumstances, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's staying power is bound to diminish, although he has managed to keep his coalition government together so far. With the LDP weakened, New Komeito, the junior coalition partner, maintains a solid position as the third party holding the trump card and is likely to boost its influence within the Koizumi administration.
The reality is that the LDP cannot govern without Komeito's cooperation. Yet the two parties remain at odds over a number of key policies. For example, Koizumi is committed to fiscal reform, while Komeito favors generous spending on social security. Koizumi already faces heavy pressure from Komeito members, and the discord is likely to intensify as details are worked out.