HONOLULU -- Is President Chen Shui-bian trying to provoke a crisis with China in the runup to Taiwan's March 2004 presidential elections?
Government spokesmen in Taipei say no, but there is a growing perception among cross-strait watchers that Taiwan is purposefully baiting Beijing in hopes of provoking a hostile response (a la the 1996 missile "tests") that will cause the island's public to rally around the flag (and the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, or DPP) in the name of Taiwanese nationalism.
There is virtually no argument that domestic politics lies at the base of Chen's controversial referendum initiative. The DPP first tried to pass legislation that would authorize referendums as an "expression of democracy" to gain some political momentum against the rival Kuomintang (KMT)/People First Party (PFP) "pan-blue" coalition, which controls the legislative Yuan and presents a serious challenge to Chen and his "pan-green" alliance with the Taiwan Solidarity Union, or TSU (headed by former President Lee Teng-Hui).