SINGAPORE -- Three weeks into the war in Iraq, the main protagonists are already retooling their strategies for dealing with the United States. China, Russia, France, Germany, Britain, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines and, lastly, North Korea (most likely the next target of American ire) have all begun analyzing the U.S.-led war in Iraq from both strategic and tactical points of view. In fact, the war in Iraq is as much about the U.S. role in the world tomorrow as whether Washington will play by the rules. Thus for many countries, contending with American power is perhaps more important than dealing with Iraq.
Although the countries mentioned are actively reassessing their positions vis-a-vis the U.S., they are mindful that they greatly benefit from close relations with Washington. Therefore they are assessing how they can maintain stable relations with the U.S. while not compromising other national interests.
China has been very cautious in its relationship with the U.S., being well aware that the Bush administration perceives it more as a "rival competitor" than a "strategic partner."
Beijing knows that U.S. perceptions will likely not change as long as the Bush administration remains in power. Therefore, it seems intent on trying to reduce U.S. global hegemony to prevent Washington from overriding its interests with impunity, while advocating cooperation with the U.S. in areas of mutual benefit, such as trade.
Such a policy may lead Beijing to engage in a more muscular assertion of its role as a dominant Asian power. For example, on the day hostilities broke out in Iraq, Beijing condemned the U.S.-led war in Iraq and warned North Korea, Japan and Taiwan on how it expected them to behave. China is also reportedly studying the Bush Doctrine calling for preemptive strikes with an eye on adopting it for possible use in the event Taiwan proclaims its independence.
Russia has begun to reassess its national interests, all the while closely observing and drawing lessons from the U.S. military strategy in Iraq. Although committed to closer ties with Washington, Moscow wants to show the U.S. that it cannot simply ignore its interests.
Soon after the Iraq war began, Moscow announced that it was delaying the ratification of a nuclear disarmament treaty and test-fired a strategic missile. Both acts were intended to send the U.S. the message that other big nuclear players still remain on the world stage.
America's trans-Atlantic allies are also closely following the war in Iraq, but for different reasons. France and Germany are expected to take the brunt of negative consequences of the war, notably on the political and economic fronts. But if the war in Iraq drags on, Paris and Berlin will probably feel that their warnings to Washington of the dire consequences of an attack on Iraq -- particularly the rise of anti-Americanism in the Muslim world -- were justified.
In addition, EU members will likely come to the realization that the future of the union will have to be revaluated and reconstructed in the wake of the war. Even British Prime Minister Tony Blair is fully aware of this, especially in the context of rebuilding Iraq -- an issue that could split London and Washington if the latter is intent on reconstructing Iraq "its own way," led by Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and the Pentagon team.
Washington's traditional Asian allies are also redrawing their strategies, not so much in light of the Iraq war but in their fight against domestic terror (the Philippines) and the North Korean threat, which hangs like the sword of Damocles over Seoul, Tokyo and even Taipei.
Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi came out openly in support of Washington despite sporadic protests in the streets. South Korean President Roh Moon Hyun has managed to send 700 noncombat troops to Iraq despite strong opposition in Parliament. Furthermore, Roh appeared to have backtracked after strenuously calling for a "more mature relationship between Seoul and Washington."
Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian has also called for solidarity with Washington, hoping that the U.S. will back him in next year's crucial presidential election.
Obviously the North Korean crisis and the closely connected issue of national and theater missile defense significantly influenced the decision by Tokyo, Seoul and Taipei to support the U.S. in the Iraq war. The issue of missile defense could, in turn, antagonize Beijing.
Finally, North Korea is keenly watching the U.S.-led war. Although Pyongyang has been playing diplomatic and military brinkmanship with Washington, it still hopes to force the U.S. to agree to direct negotiations and sign a nonaggression pact.
But Pyongyang's brinkmanship is raising great concern in Japan and South Korea, and has unwittingly placed China in the center of the whole game. This is amply demonstrated by Japanese Foreign Minister Yoriko Kawaguchi's most recent visit to Beijing to obtain assurances from the new Chinese leadership over Pyongyang. But it remains unclear whether Pyongyang will yield to reason or pressure from either China or the U.S. to settle the nuclear crisis quietly.
Nations around the world are scrutinizing U.S. actions for clues to what global role it will play in the future. Asian countries in particular fear that they soon could be unwilling witnesses to deadly nuclear brinkmanship in their own backyard.
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