Now that the Chinese Communist Party has completed a smooth leadership transition, the world is watching how Mr. Hu Jintao, the new party chief, will navigate his one-party socialist state of 1.3 billion people through the treacherous waters of globalization. Predicting his future course is complicated by the fact that, for all the media hoopla about the 59-year-old technocrat, little is known about his political skills and beliefs.
The champion of the fourth generation of Chinese rulers since the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949, Mr. Hu succeeded Mr. Jiang Zemin as general secretary last Friday at a plenary session of the CCP Central Committee following the 16th Party Congress. Now vice president of the state, Mr. Hu is expected to become president, also succeeding Mr. Jiang, at the National People's Congress next March.
One problem facing Mr. Hu is that his power base in the party remains relatively weak. Mr. Jiang, though officially in retirement, has retained his title as chairman of the Central Military Commission. Moreover, Mr. Jiang has placed his allies in the all-powerful Standing Committee of the Politburo, thus effectively ensuring that he will play the role of eminence grise. So it is likely that, at least for the time being, Mr. Hu will be obliged to follow the course set by his predecessor.