Vietnam is gearing up for its next party congress, which begins April 19. The timing could not be worse for the conclave, which occurs every five years. There is unrest in the central highlands and growing discontent with the party leadership, and the economy, which is ticking along quite nicely, will come under strain as global growth slows.
The most pressing issue is the ethnic unrest in the central highlands. A wave of protest in the provinces of Dhalak and Gia Lai in the middle of the country, the worst such incidents in years, has shaken the Communist Party leadership. There will be no quick fix: Poverty, religion and an uneasy ethnic mix all contribute to the tensions.
Part of the problem is religion. Communist parties are never comfortable with divided allegiances; Vietnam's party has a history of suppressing both Buddhists and Christians. In recent months, Christian protests have sparked confrontations between the government and believers; scores have been hurt and several killed. In an attempt to stem the violence, the government last month granted nationwide recognition to a Protestant church, the Evangelical Church of Vietnam. That is a start, but only just: The ECV accounts for only about 25,000 of Vietnam's estimated 750,000 Protestants. Buddhists have won no such relief. Human-rights groups complain that Hanoi continues its crackdown against adherents of the faith.