When he ended his recent visit to the Middle East, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell implied that sanctions against Iraq needed to be revised to make them more acceptable to other countries in the region. He noted, however, that such a revision would be viewed as a softer approach to Iraq and might be opposed by those who favor overthrowing Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.

Indeed, it appears the Bush administration is divided on this issue. It already has increased support to Iraqi opposition groups that claim they can topple the dictator. "I haven't seen a plausible plan today," Paul Wolfowitz, deputy secretary of defense, told the Senate Armed Services Committee, "but I would be very interested in seeing one." Before he joined the government, Wolfowitz wrote that the United States "should be prepared to commit ground forces to protect a sanctuary in southern Iraq where the opposition could safely mobilize."

Those statements raise three issues. The first is the ability of the opposition to mount a credible threat. The U.S. and its allies have famously underestimated Hussein before.