The death toll from the earthquake that hit the western Indian state of Gujarat last Friday continues to mount. Officially, 6,287 people have been confirmed dead as a result of the tremor that registered 7.9 on the Richter scale, and 15,481 were injured. About a half-million people have been left homeless. The number of victims is sure to climb as rescue efforts continue; Indian Defense Minister George Fernandes believes that more than 100,000 people could have died in the quake and an additional 200,000 injured, making it one of the worst in history.
Now, it is a race against time to find more survivors. The task has been complicated by shortages of personnel and equipment; electricity has not yet been restored and there are limited communications facilities to coordinate rescue efforts. If that were not enough, the tremors have not stopped: There have been more than 250 aftershocks since Friday. While they are lessening in intensity, the tremors increase the risk that already weakened buildings might collapse. Yet, each day, some miracle is revealed as another survivor is pulled from the rubble. Unfortunately, time is running short.
The size of the tragedy is far beyond the ability of the Indian government to cope with. Gujarat has been the fastest-growing state in the country; its economy has been growing at a rate of more than 9 percent a year during the 1990s, almost half again as much as the national average. The Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry estimates the building and construction losses across the state of Gujarat at 150 billion rupees ($3.2 billion), or about 0.8 percent of gross domestic product. Since Gujarat is the country's second-most-industrialized state, the quake has delivered a one-two punch to the economy. The drop in output combined with the need for funds for reconstruction will have a severe impact on national accounts and push the government even further into debt.