A wave of terrorist bombings in Moscow is pushing Russia once again toward war. No government can permit its citizens to be terrorized, and the scale of the recent attacks suggests that a formidable enemy is at work. Still, Moscow's response to the bombings seems ill-planned and desperate. Just as troubling is the tacit approval that the rest of the world is giving Russia as it prepares for another military campaign. Another disastrous incursion into the Caucasus could have consequences that reverberate far beyond that troubled region.
A series of explosions during the last month killed 292 people, brought fear into the lives of ordinary Russians and sparked a security crackdown across the country. Although the identity of the perpetrators is unknown, the Russian government assumes that the terrorists are Islamic militants tied to separatist guerrillas in the republics of Chechnya and Dagestan. The security forces have focused on the "dark-skinned" people of the Caucasus, detaining thousands while arresting only a fraction of that number. The government justifies its actions by claiming that 16 explosions have been prevented and 521 tons of explosives seized. Few Russians are concerned about the manifest injustice of subjecting thousands of people to search and arrest on the basis of skin color alone.
The other component of the government's response -- a military attack on the Chechen Republic -- is unlikely to be as "successful." Russia already fought a three-year war in the republic, which ended in 1996 with a negotiated settlement that gave Chechnya de facto independence. That war caused 80,000 deaths, highlighted the Russian military's impotence and the savage tactics stained Russia's international image. The Russian armed forces are still smarting from the humiliation and eager to take revenge.