With Komeito out of the ruling coalition, the parliamentary vote for prime minister has been thrown into confusion, as the Liberal Democratic Party and major opposition forces struggle to secure the needed votes for their candidates in a contest that looks increasingly likely to be decided in a runoff.
With the LDP no longer able to rely on Komeito’s support, newly elected LDP President Sanae Takaichi faces a higher hurdle in finding the needed votes from at least one major opposition party and little time to win them over before the expected opening of parliament early next week, possibly on Oct. 20.
Meanwhile, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), sensing a chance to beat Takaichi in a runoff, is calling for a unified opposition candidate, with Democratic Party for the People (DPP) leader Yuichiro Tamaki’s name emerging. But the CDP and the DPP must first overcome differences on key policies to forge an agreement on how they would cooperate in parliament if Tamaki is elected prime minister.
Speaking on an NHK program Sunday, Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito denied that a return to the LDP-led coalition would happen anytime soon. He added that the party would not vote for Tamaki or an opposition candidate in the first round, but avoided saying how Komeito would vote in a runoff.
CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda said during a Fuji TV program the same day that his party is seeking cooperation with the DPP in the vote, calling Tamaki a good choice for prime minister.
Tamaki said Friday evening following Komeito’s departure from the coalition that he was prepared to serve as prime minister. But speaking to reporters in Osaka on Saturday evening, Tamaki said there were still policy issues separating the DPP and the CDP that needed to be dealt with before that could happen.
“We can’t form a coalition with the current DPP,” Tamaki said. “Our fundamental policies — especially our views on security issues — are different.”
When parliament convenes, the focus will be on the 465-member Lower House, which will vote to decide the next prime minister. If no one secures a majority during the first round, a runoff will be held between the two candidates with the most votes.
Both Takaichi and the opposition parties face a tough battle ahead to secure the needed votes. A Lower House majority means 233 would be needed to win without a runoff. But without Komeito in the ruling camp, the LDP has only 196 members.
The two main opposition parties it would most likely approach for the crucial Lower House votes needed to elect Takaichi are Nippon Ishin, with 35 members, and the DPP, which has 27 members. But in neither case would that give Takaichi the 233 votes needed for an outright majority.
Only with the cooperation of both Nippon Ishin and the DPP could she get 258 votes and win in the first round.
The opposition parties, however, also face a tough time in securing 233 first round votes. To get just over the line, they would have to convince Komeito to change its mind and vote for a unified opposition candidate. A candidate backed by the CDP, DPP, Nippon Ishin and Komeito would have 234 votes.
The key, however, will be what happens if the vote goes to a runoff. All parties would then have to decide whether to back Takaichi or the non-LDP choice, although they also have the option of abstaining, something that Komeito’s Saito said the party hasn’t ruled out.
Negotiations between the opposition parties are expected to continue this week, with attention focused on whether the CDP and the DPP can agree on some form of cooperation and rally behind Tamaki. If that happens, it could then lead to further discussions with Nippon Ishin about voting for the opposition-backed candidate in a runoff.
But time is running out for both sides to get the needed votes for a new prime minister. In addition to the likely start of parliament next week, an Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit is slated to begin on Oct. 26 in Malaysia, which the next Japanese prime minister may attend. A Japan-U.S. summit could also take place on Oct. 28, right before the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in South Korea from Oct. 31.
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