Hokkaido may see increased harvests of certain crops due to climate change in the coming years, even though predicted hotter growing conditions and more unstable weather patterns pose further risks to food quality and quantity.
On the plus side, as Japan’s northernmost prefecture becomes warmer, it could become easier to grow more apples and sweet potatoes, agricultural cooperative officials say.
Yields of certain staple crops are also expected to increase, and more types of corn could be grown, according to research by prefectural and national research institutions
Grape harvests could become more abundant over time. New varieties of peanuts are also a possibility.
Hokkaido is already a significant source of the country's food supply. It produced 62% of Japan’s wheat in 2022, 93% of its red beans, 100% of its sugar beets and 81% of its potatoes. Hokkaido had 61.7% of Japan’s dairy cattle.
The prefecture has also warmed significantly. Average temperatures rose 1.6 degrees Celsius between 1898 and 2020, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. Local authorities, meanwhile, forecast a full degree Celsius increase this century, and anticipate higher rainfall with higher temperatures.
While last year was Hokkaido's hottest on record, agricultural administrators and researchers argue that heat is not the only negative effect of a changing climate.
Growing seasons are becoming unpredictable. Changing precipitation patterns can leave the soil too dry just when water is needed, and too wet at other times, agricultural cooperative officials say.
High winds resulting from climate change can harm crops, and changes in the consistency of snow, and where and when it falls, could make planting and harvesting more of a challenge.
The Hokkaido Research Organization is forecasting lower fall wheat yields, less grass for grazing and a drop in potato production as the climate changes.
In addition, rice might sprout at the wrong time if the weather is too warm too early, while the protein content of the grain is lower than normal in some climate-change scenarios. Wheat harvest periods might be thrown off by changes in sunlight, unusual fluctuations in temperature and unseasonal rain. The sugar content of beetroots could decrease, leaving beets more susceptible to disease.
Extreme weather has already impacted Hokkaido and the country as a whole. Heavy rains in the summer of 2016 damaged the prefecture’s potato crop, which resulted in a nationwide shortage of potato chips.
For more than a century, since modern agricultural methods were first introduced to the island, Hokkaido has worked to develop farming in a cold climate, breeding crops and perfecting practices suitable for the island's harsh conditions. Now, it has to undo much of that and adapt to very different weather patterns.
“Historically, we weren't accustomed to the heat. But we now have to figure out how to deal with it,” says Hidetaka Katada, an agricultural policy official at the JA Hokkaido Chuokai agricultural cooperative.
In terms of commercial food production, there are positive aspects of climate change recognized by officials and researchers in Hokkaido, and they are quick to tick off examples.
Wetter summers could help yields of some varieties of wheat grown on the island, while soybean harvests could improve. Corn feed production is expected to increase, as Hokkaido is seen as becoming more suitable for the types of corn traditionally grown farther south.
“Originally, dent corn could only be produced in places where the temperature was somewhat high. But now, in Hokkaido, it can be grown even in places like Kushiro and Nemuro, which have traditionally been too cold,” Katada says.
Sugar beet production is expected to increase by the mid-2030s, and red bean and azuki bean production could increase, overall.
Sweet potato production, something traditionally more associated with the southern island of Kyushu, is also taking place in Hokkaido, which has not historically been seen as having a suitably warm climate for the root.
“In 2023, about 60 hectares of sweet potatoes were grown in Hokkaido. This year, 2024, the planned area for sweet potatoes is about 90 hectares,” Katada says.
Rice production might increase, and fruit output could also rise in a warmer Hokkaido, which is good news in particular for Hokkaido's wine industry.
“In recent years, we’ve seen an increase in the production of European wine grapes, such as Pinot Noir and Kerner varieties, especially in the Hakodate area,” says Tadahiro Saito, an official in Hokkaido prefecture’s agriculture policy department in charge of production and promotion of agricultural goods.
Saito cited a January report by the NARO Hokkaido Agricultural Research Center that predicts that areas in the prefecture suitable for wine grape cultivation will continue to expand for decades.
The prefecture also forecasts that more Fuji apples might be grown in Hokkaido by mid-century.
Some international research is decidedly optimistic about some crops in the prefecture. In a 2015 study using aggressive warming assumptions, Washington’s International Food Policy Research Institute found that yields for corn, potatoes, rice and wheat in Hokkaido are likely to rise more than 5% by 2050.
But along with the rosy predictions, there are also deep concerns about Hokkaido's changing climate and what it means for future agricultural production and sustainability.
For a single type of crop, warming means pluses and minuses for its production. These can vary considerably depending on location and variety, and the net effect of climate change is not always obvious.
In the case of rice, yields could increase and taste might improve, while protein content could drop as the risk of damage to the harvests increases.
For some crops, improvements in output or yield might be because of technological advancements rather than warmer weather.
Increased sweet potato production is in part due to the use of greenhouses, while improvements in rice quality and quantity may be due to not only warmer growing seasons, but also the expanded use of advanced technology.
Farmers and officials are aware that, given the complexities of Hokkaido’s agricultural system and the changing weather patterns, no one-size-fits-all solution can effectively address global warming's impact on local agriculture.
JA Hokkaido officials suggest using drones at municipal levels to help provide more accurate information on local weather conditions and forecasts, and planting new varieties of crops that are more heat resistant.
They also say that advanced technologies are a more long-term solution to a problem that also requires short-term efforts.
“There is a need for more basic measures to cope with the heat, such as having technologies to water rice fields and cool down dairy cows through increased ventilation of the barns,” says Katada.
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