As Australia prepares to replace some of its aging frigates, Canberra has identified Japan's advanced Mogami-class multimission warships, operated by the Maritime Self-Defense Force, as one of up to five potential candidates for that role.
While Tokyo and contractor Mitsubishi Heavy Industries would be up against stiff competition from rivals with more experience in defense exports, analysts say that the Mogami-class warships — or co-developed Australian variants of them — stand a fair chance in any bidding war.
Not only would the Japanese frigate’s cutting-edge design and capabilities meet the broad guidelines outlined by the Royal Australian Navy (RAN), its selection would also significantly boost the quasi-allies’ rapidly intensifying military and defense-industrial ties.
Japanese media have reported that Tokyo is planning to participate in the program to replace Australia’s Anzac-class frigates, since a successful bid would greatly bolster the country’s defense industry. However, government spokesperson Yoshimasa Hayashi said earlier this week that Tokyo has yet to decide on the matter.
The Mogami frigates were shortlisted in a February report by the Australian government stating that the RAN is seeking between seven and 11 general-purpose frigates optimized for undersea warfare as part of Canberra’s efforts to more than double the size of its surface combatant fleet to address potential threats farther away from its national borders.
Also identified in the report were Germany’s Meko A-200, South Korea’s Daegu-class FFX Batch II and III, and Spain’s Navantia ALFA 3000, with the report pointing to these ships as “exemplars to form the basis of a selection process.”
Among the broad requirements set by Canberra are the vessels’ ability to embark a combat helicopter, deploy lightweight torpedoes, feature air defenses as well as maritime and land strike capabilities, while also maintaining smaller crews than the Anzac frigates it commissioned in the 1990s and early 2000s.
To get the frigates as quickly as possible — the first one needs to be in the water by 2029 — the three initial vessels would be built overseas in the yard of the designer while manufacturing of the remaining ships would transition to Henderson in Western Australia.
The Mogami ships fall within the very broad guidelines of what is being sought. Vessels of this class, which are difficult to detect by radar thanks to their stealthy hull shape, can be deployed for a variety of missions, including anti-submarine warfare.
At the same time, these frigates are not only cheaper to build than the larger, general-purpose destroyers, but they can also be operated with half the crew, all the while fulfilling similar roles.
“The Mogami appears to be a stealthier design than all of the others,” said Kym Bergmann, editor of the Asia Pacific Defence Reporter and Defence Review Asia magazines. “Some consider it to be the most modern of all the designs with a high level of automation with consequent savings in through-life costs.”
Professor Peter Dean from the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre also points to the vessels’ high speed, missile-launch systems and ability to deploy both surface and underwater drones as key features.
The Mogami ships are also in a cycle of continued modification as the MSDF is acquiring them in two batches of 12 ships each, with the second batch — a more capable version — to be procured from 2024 until 2028.
This new variant could be what Tokyo offers Canberra for joint development, not just because of its enhanced capabilities but also because the successive production timelines could trigger economies of scale and lower costs.
Nevertheless, Japan also faces challenges, with the biggest obstacle being its lack of experience in exporting major defense equipment and program management with other countries.
“This program will require a hybrid build of some ships locally and some in Australia, so the key question is how willing and well prepared will Japan be to transfer intellectual property rights and skills,” Dean said.
Should a Mogami variant be selected, it might be necessary for Australian workers to be trained in Japan while Japanese companies would have to identify industrial partners in Australia and begin a process of cooperation.
Japan has only ever built warships at home, and it is unclear just how quickly or effectively the frigates could be built in Australia — both of which are key factors in a program likely to benefit suppliers that offer a low price and a very fast delivery schedule.
The Mogami’s contenders are all vessels with proven capabilities, and their builders have a strong record of collaboration, with some having supplied several key warships to the RAN.
Canberra has yet to unveil a detailed list of priorities, although the potential bidders are expected to receive a formal request for tender containing the RAN’s concrete requirements “within weeks, or even days,” according to Bergmann.
Given the strong competition, Tokyo’s chances would largely depend on the overall quality of its bid.
“The Mogami class is a highly capable ship, but this will be as much about the partnership proposal, including aspects such as contracting, cost, build speed, IP transfer and a genuine program for the vessels’ co-development, delivery, sustainment and maintenance,” Dean said.
“If this is an attractive package, then Japan’s chances would be very high.”
But another key factor could tilt the balance in Japan’s favor: Canberra’s willingness to forge closer military and defense-industrial ties with Tokyo.
“Picking a winner for this contest will be difficult because the bidders have different strengths,” said Bergmann, adding that he believes Japan’s chances at this stage are 25% — the same as the others.
But, if Australia sees the program as a chance to strengthen strategic relations in Asia, “then Japan’s chances would increase to 40%, which is not bad in a four- or five-horse race,” he added.
Indeed, Australia’s recently unveiled National Defense Strategy places a very high premium on deepening the strategic partnership with Japan.
Canberra’s decision to co-develop the frigate with Japan would mark “a massive leap forward for this bilateral engagement,” Dean said.
Analysts say that the winner will need to be chosen within the next 12 months.
“This is unprecedented speed in Australia with a defense system known to be slow and cumbersome,” said Bergmann, noting what he said were successive Australian governments’ failures to make timely decisions about the RAN’s future.
“As a result, great speed is now required to avoid a capability gap.”
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