Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s sudden announcement late last week of his plan to dissolve his political faction in order to restore public trust in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party — and his own administration — appears to be a gamble that has failed.
Leaders of three major LDP factions, including Kishida, announced last week that they would disband their groups over a political slush funds scandal, but on Monday polls showed public support for the prime minister and his party remained low.
A Yomiuri Shimbun poll conducted over the weekend found the Kishida Cabinet’s approval rate was 24%, the lowest since the LDP returned to power in 2012. The poll also showed that 92% of respondents did not think the LDP's top leaders, including Kishida, had adequately explained the scandal to the public, including their own roles.
An Asahi Shimbun poll, also conducted Saturday and Sunday, showed that 72% of respondents did not believe that dissolving the factions would restore public trust, and gave a Cabinet support rate of 23%. A separate TV Asahi poll over the same period showed a Cabinet support rate of just 20.4%.
In addition to the Kishida faction, the one previously led by the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe — the party’s largest faction — and the one under former LDP Secretary-General Toshihiro Nikai will also be dissolved.
However, three other factions have said they will remain intact, at least for now. They consist of the second-largest one under former Prime Minister Taro Aso, the third-largest one under LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi, and one led by Hiroshi Moriyama, chief of the party's General Council. Aso reportedly defied pressure and conveyed his intention to Kishida to maintain his faction, saying his group's political funds have been properly managed.
Unlike the Kishida, Abe and Nikai factions, the three factions that have said they will remain are not the subject of prosecutors’ investigations. Rather, the focus of the investigation has been the Abe faction.
On Monday, Abe faction member and Lower House lawmaker Yaichi Tanigawa, who has been indicted on suspicion of not reporting more than ¥43 million in kickbacks from sales of tickets to his fundraising events, submitted his resignation as a member of parliament.
In the meantime, other LDP members are making plans to create informal political groups, as opposed to factions, that are legal entities.
On Monday, unaffiliated Upper House member Shigeharu Aoyama established a 15-member group, which also includes members of the Kishida, Nikai and Aso factions.
That follows a move by other unaffiliated members who established a group on Friday and discussed party reform. They were led by State Minister of Finance Ryosei Akazawa, who is on good terms with former LDP Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba, and former Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Manabu Sakai, who is close to former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga.
Both Ishiba and Suga have long been heavily critical of factional politics. Ishiba is a popular choice in media polls to replace Kishida as prime minister, while Suga is the top adviser to a party political reform panel looking into the scandal.
Lower House member Tatsuo Fukuda, the son and grandson of prime ministers, has also announced he will form a new political group, though the details of when and how many lawmakers will join him remain unclear.
As the political upheaval continues, the Kishida administration is readying itself for the release of the reform panel’s report on the slush funds scandal and its recommendations for preventing similar problems in the future. The panel met Monday afternoon.
“The task force will consider how to prevent a recurrence based on the causes of the political funds problem in order to restore public trust in politics,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi told reporters Monday morning. "It will also continue to deepen discussions on expanding transparency around political funds and establishing rules regarding the way political policy groups should operate."
But the polls showed the public is highly skeptical of the panel’s effectiveness.
The Yomiuri Shimbun poll showed 75% had no expectations it would lead to reform, while the TV Asahi poll showed 74% thought the same.
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