Just minutes after U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi became the highest-ranking American official to set foot in Taiwan in 25 years, a furious China announced a spate of military exercises that would effectively encircle the democratic island.
But the drills, which China characterized as a “series of targeted military actions” in response to Pelosi’s visit, aren’t just intended to keep Taiwan and the United States in check. They’re also a clear warning to Japan, experts say, with some of its far-flung southwestern islands sandwiched between planned exercise zones, according to coordinates released by the Chinese military.
“Those plans show that the Sakishima Islands, including Yonaguni, Ishigaki, and Miyako, could be affected by People’s Liberation Army operations as they assume the PLA is operating to the east of Taiwan,” said Tetsuo Kotani, a professor of global studies at Meikai University.
In Okinawa Prefecture, Yonaguni Island — located just 110 kilometers from Taiwan — as well and Miyako Island are home to Ground Self-Defense Force bases, while construction is currently underway on another base for surface-to-air and surface-to-ship missile units on Ishigaki Island.
China has repeatedly sent warships and warplanes into that area in recent years as part of what it says are routine training operations. It also conducted military drills near Taiwan during what is known as the “Third Taiwan Strait Crisis” in 1995-96. But the drills announced late Tuesday encompass a far larger area than those exercises, and include large swaths to the northeast and east of Taiwan, where U.S. and Japanese forces would likely arrive from in the event they are deployed to aid Taipei following any Chinese invasion.
Senior Japanese officials, including late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, have said that a Chinese attack on democratic Taiwan — a key semiconductor-maker that sits astride crucial shipping lanes that provide Japan with much of its energy — would also represent an emergency for Tokyo. Some, including former Prime Minister Taro Aso, have even hinted that Japan would help defend Taiwan with the U.S. if it were attacked by China under the right to collective self-defense.
Japan’s most recent defense white paper, released last month, also highlighted Taiwan’s location at the junction of the South China Sea, the Bashi Channel and the East China Sea and facing “important sea lanes” as critical to the energy-dependent country.
Additionally, the area is home to the Japanese-controlled Senkaku Islands, which are also claimed by China, where they are known as the Diaoyu. Tokyo and Beijing remain at loggerheads over the tiny islets, which sit in waters rich in fish and hydrocarbons. China has increasingly boosted its presence there in recent years, and Kotani said that the Chinese military could attempt to seize the Senkakus as part of an invasion of Taiwan.
“There is always a chance of unintended accidents and escalation among Chinese, Japanese and American forces in such a situation,” he said.
Amanda Hsiao, a senior China analyst at the International Crisis Group think tank, said that China’s planned exercises — and the potential ramifications of them — could add more momentum to a growing view among Japanese lawmakers, especially those in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, that Japan must quickly bolster its defenses, as a Chinese attack on Taiwan looks increasingly like an option Beijing is willing to pursue.
“Chinese military drills and live-fire tests close to Japan may accelerate already ongoing discussions in Tokyo about its role in a Taiwan contingency, forcing Japanese politicians to think more concretely about such an eventuality, and deepening concerns over a potential Chinese military invasion of Taiwan,” Hsiao said.
There are also fears that the planned exercises could result in an accident that spirals out of control — one of the biggest concerns of the U.S., Japan’s top ally.
“Taiwan is geographically close to Japan. Certainly an emergency over Taiwan would likely affect Japan,” said Ian Chong, a professor of political science at the National University of Singapore. “An emergency, such as an accident involving military craft or missiles leading to unintended and uncontrollable escalation, may prove dangerous for Japan. Policymakers in Tokyo would understandably be concerned about Chinese behavior, and may be asking for restraint from Beijing.”
In a sign of these fears, Japan on Wednesday expressed its concerns to China over the planned drills.
"The maritime areas announced by the Chinese side that will be used for military exercises ... overlaps with Japan's exclusive economic zone," which extends 200 nautical miles (370 kilometers) from its coast, Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno, the government’s top spokesman, told a news conference Wednesday.
"Considering that this is live-fire training, Japan has expressed concerns to the Chinese side," he said, referring specifically to drills set to kick off Thursday and wrap-up Sunday.
"Peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait are important not only for Japan's security but also for the stability of the international community," Matsuno said, adding that Tokyo hopes issues involving Taiwan can be "resolved peacefully through dialogue.”
But it is unclear if Japan’s diplomatic entreaties will fall on deaf ears in Beijing — especially as China increasingly views its neighbor as part of a U.S.-led grouping seeking to contain it.
Rather, suggested Kotani, Japan will need to play its own role in a joint response to China’s planned drills — which he said would reflect part of Beijing’s actual invasion plans — though he said that, at this point, it was unlikely that would do much to prevent similar exercises from becoming standard practice.
"China will make those exercises routine anyway, so Japan, the United States and Taiwan should strengthen cooperation on intelligence-gathering and intelligence-sharing."
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