Prime Minister Scott Morrison is urging Australians to abandon COVID-19 precautions when vaccination rates hit thresholds later this year, even as academic modeling released Tuesday shows such a strategy could expose the nation to a wave of illness and death that it’s so far avoided.

Australia’s delta-fueled surge is showing little sign of slowing after 753 cases were reported by New South Wales state on Tuesday, slightly down from its record of 830 infections Sunday.

The virus is continuing to spread to other parts of Australia despite lockdown restrictions enforced on more than half the nation’s 26 million people. New Zealand is also enforcing stay-at-home orders after the outbreak that started in Sydney reached there.