In 12 months time, the French will start the process of deciding whether they want to keep Emmanuel Macron as president, or dismiss him.

The 43-year-old investment banker-turned-president has been bruised by his government’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, rallies against police violence and strikes against his pension reform, as well protests by the Yellow Vests movement that demands greater economic equality. And then, there’s a perception he’s arrogant and aloof.

Even so, Macron’s approval rating is around 40% in recent surveys. He can count on a strong base of loyal voters, and with left- and right-wing parties in disarray and bickering over who will represent them in April 2022, he’s almost certain to make it to the second round of the election — probably finding himself again facing off with far-right leader Marine Le Pen.