China’s long lockdown in Wuhan may have bought the country months of time before a feared second wave of coronavirus cases peaks, according to a study with implications for how long other nations may have to maintain similar restrictions.
Reopening schools and businesses in April might push back the highest point of a second wave to October, giving health systems more time to prepare, researchers said in a study published in Lancet Public Health. Lifting the measures just a month earlier, in March, might have resulted in a wave of infections cresting in late August, the researchers found.
The strength of a potential second wave is key to governments deciding how long lockdowns should last and how to lift restrictions without seeing the virus surge again. Differences in regional outbreaks and responses mean the timeline in China doesn’t extrapolate directly to other epicenters of the pandemic around the world, said lead researcher Kiesha Prem of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.