A Cowen & Co. analyst predicts that states opposing T-Mobile US Inc.'s $26.5 billion takeover of Sprint Corp. may have convinced a federal judge to block the deal.

Based on two weeks of court testimony last month and the nature of the questions U.S. District Judge Victor Marrero asked during the proceedings, analyst Paul Gallant sees a 60 percent chance the ruling will favor the state attorneys general, according to a note Thursday.

The case will help determine the fate of the U.S. wireless industry as the two smaller national carriers seek to combine into a more effective competitor to Verizon Communications Inc. and AT&T Inc. Democratic attorneys general from 13 states and the District of Columbia are fighting to block the deal, saying the combination would harm consumers through higher prices and weaker service.