Just as deposit interest rates have remained near zero for the past 20 years in Japan, housing mortgage interest rates have been lower here than almost anywhere else in the world. The effect of the latter has been almost counter-intuitive. Low interest usually spurs investment in real estate and home sales but Japan’s economic situation, not to mention its housing environment, is so odd to begin with that this hasn’t proved to be the case. Younger people thinking about buying homes have lived with low interest rates for so long that they think it’s the norm.
Last week interest rates for housing loans increased by 0.05 percent, the first rise in three months. Interest rates for loans are based on 10-year-bond interest rates. The Bank of Japan, on behalf of the prime minister, is gunning for a two percent inflation rate, and in order to achieve that goal it announced plans to buy government bonds from banks. Anticipating the BOJ’s move, investors have started to sell their bonds. When the price of bonds goes down the interest they pay goes up. More people sold bonds than the BOJ projected, which may not make the government happy since in the long run it will have to pay that interest to bondholders. If consumer prices and, in turn, salaries go up, that won’t be a problem since the government can collect more taxes as a result, but if inflation doesn’t kick in then it just means even more government debt.