Staff writer

Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto's efforts to reform the nation's much-criticized, postwar administrative system will enter a crucial phase in a few weeks.

Members of the Administrative Reform Council, including 13 leading intellectuals and prominent figures from the private sector, will pack a Tokyo hotel for four days starting Aug. 18 to hold intensive discussions on the design of a new, smaller and more efficient administration system.

It remains to be seen, however, if the blue-ribbon panel can come up with a proposal drastic enough to transform the system for the coming century, especially at a time when mounting opposition is expected from those with vested interests, such as bureaucrats and politicians.

The discussion is critical for Hashimoto, who heads the council and has repeatedly pledged to accomplish the reform as his policy priority.

If the session turns out to be a failure, the result will then influence his fate as prime minister.

Hashimoto asked leaders of the two council subcommittees in late July to draw up a blueprint for reform from an academic viewpoint, free from outside pressure.

His remark reflected the difficulties surrounding the reform, which is at the top of the list of his six big reforms -- of the administration, fiscal structure, financial system, economic structure, social security and education.

Although the general idea of administrative reform has been widely accepted by the parties involved, specifics are expected to meet fierce opposition from those who have benefited from the current system.

Two senior scholars have been designated by Hashimoto to be responsible for drafting preliminary reports on the issue by Sept. 3, based on next week's intensive discussions.

One is Koji Sato, a Constitution professor at Kyoto University, who chairs a subcommittee on strengthening the Cabinet's functions.

The other is Tokiyasu Fujita, professor of administrative law at Tohoku University who chairs a subcommittee on streamlining government ministries and agencies.

The reform plans are to be finalized by November, early enough to submit a set of bills to the next regular Diet session convening in January. Hashimoto has pledged that the new administration system will be introduced in 2001.

Since it was established last November, the council has been holding weekly meetings. However, only a few items have been agreed upon so far, such as strengthening the authority of the prime minister and increasing the functions of the Cabinet.

The subcommittee headed by Sato late last month agreed to recommend that the government revise articles 4 and 12 of the Cabinet Law to give the prime minister more authority in guiding Cabinet discussions on important issues.

The suggested legal revision is also intended to recover the political initiative over the bureaucracy and to break down the current rigid ministry boundaries, enabling greater flexibility and cooperation among sections in different ministries.

Currently, Cabinet meetings are mere ceremonies in which ministers give the nod to almost anything that has already been decided during prior meetings of administrative vice ministers, or top bureaucrats.

If objections are raised to issues on the bureaucratic side, ministers are not able to take decisions on them, and the prime minister has no say in the matter because he is only responsible for supervising Cabinet meetings.

Under current Cabinet law it is not clear whether the prime minister can actively propose discussion of policy-related matters at Cabinet meetings.

During next week's talks, the subcommittee is expected to consider boosting the functions of the Prime Minister's Office, giving it authority over the ministries and enabling it to entrust several ministries to work on one issue.

The subcommittee also agreed to propose that the Cabinet be given a basic policy-drafting function for annual budget plans, depriving the Finance Ministry of the symbolic role. This issue has long been cited as the cause of power concentration in what is considered to be an excessively powerful ministry.

It was also proposed that a new secretariat directly under the prime minister be set up to support the budget-related function.

The subcommittee, however, has not reached an agreement on whether Article 6 of the Cabinet Law should also be revised to empower the prime minister to give direct orders to ministry officials without prior consultation with the related minister.

Hashimoto went beyond the current legal framework in early July, and directly ordered officials of the Transport Ministry to deal swiftly with an oil leak accident from a tanker in Tokyo Bay. The prime minister indicated that such action should be permissible in an emergency.

However, some council members expressed concern over the possibility that the prime minister could gain excessive power.

Shigeru Ito, secretary general of the Social Democratic Party, a non-Cabinet ally of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, recently criticized the prime minister's intention, saying, "The debate at the panel is all about how to strengthen the Cabinet.

"We believe that enacting a law to provide the public with access to administrative information and promoting decentralization of power from the central government to local governments is also essential to carry out administrative reform," Ito said.

Another issue to be considered, the streamlining of 22 government ministries and agencies, as pledged by Hashimoto during his October 1996 general election campaign, remains a matter for "free discussions" at the subcommittee headed by Fujita.

The council considers that handing nonpolicy government duties to quasigovernmental organizations is a realistic option for downsizing the bloated government.

But details have yet to be mapped out for what is known as the "independent agency plan."

Under the plan, semigovernmental bodies that function as corporations would be established to handle such duties as issuing various licenses and passports, dealing with a variety of registries and providing social security-related services.

However, some panel members have raised questions about the agency plan, which is modeled after Britain's executive agencies.

"The difference is unclear between the new independent agencies and conventional government-affiliated corporations, which are criticized as inefficient and a waste of public money," said Jinnosuke Ashida, a council member and chairman of the Japanese Trade Union Confederation (Rengo).

It is unlikely that the subcommittee will be able deepen its discussion about the agency plan enough to reach a conclusion during the four days.

Other problems relating to the independent agency system will probably be raised when the ruling alliance, consisting of the LDP, SDP and New Party Sakigake, start discussions on administrative reform in September.

The ruling alliance was asked by Hashimoto in late July to form a panel to debate the two subcommittee reports.

One of the problems may involve the status of civil servants at the new agencies. This would stir protest from Rengo, the nation's largest labor organization, with about 8 million affiliated members, including public servant unions.

It is expected that the SDP, in which the labor organization has major influence, will demand that no change of status be made to public servant positions. The SDP is also expected to speak for Rengo to oppose personnel cutback plans in the government, even though any streamlining of the government will require personnel cuts.

The LDP also has internal contradictions.

Although voices are mounting in the call for privatization of three Posts and Telecommunications Ministry services -- postal, postal savings and insurance services -- the LDP has already announced that it supports the current system. Some council members have said the three services are ideal candidates for the independent agency system, but the LDP is reluctant to accept the idea.

The LDP's attitude stems from the longtime voter support efforts provided by a national organization of regional post office chiefs that strongly opposes the privatization of the three services.

The debate on reform risks is being dragged down by political maneuvering and some believe it must be broadened in order to be successful.

"In order to carry out administrative reform, we should call on a wider public to support us," said Kiyoshi Mizuno, a member of the council and a special aide to Hashimoto on the reform. "Without public support, we do not know where the reform scheme will go."