A trade deal fumble could be Ishiba’s last mistake

Shigeru Ishiba’s rise to Japanese prime minister once seemed so unlikely, it felt like a fever dream.

Nearly 10 months later, Ishiba has lasted longer than many expected — given artificial life by the "national crisis” of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. But as Sunday’s crucial Upper House elections approach with no sign of a trade deal, many are wondering if the fever is about to break.

The House of Councilors election is typically dull, commanding little power. Former leader Shinzo Abe’s assassination during the 2022 campaign was the exception. But due in large part to the knock-on effects of that event, Japanese politics are now in the most chaotic period for decades — and Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party, which has long dominated the country, is limping to what looks like a historic drubbing.

The prime minister already leads a coalition that lacks a majority in the Lower House. Despite his impressive longevity (relative to expectations, that is), another bad showing Sunday and Japan will likely be looking for its third leader in as many years.

Ishiba has been a disappointment for the LDP in several ways, but foremost is his failure to live up to the job description. He was elected last September to capitalize on his purported popularity, which turned out to be a mirage. The public liked the idea of Ishiba, an avatar for anti-Abe sentiment. Reality disappointed.

But another reason was the specter of Trump returning to the White House. Japan needed a levelheaded leader, went the argument, and Ishiba was seen as a safer pair of hands than the other two contenders. He appears to have fumbled. His inability to forge a relationship with the U.S. president stands in stark contrast to Abe, who flattered and charmed with his golf-buddy friendship, sparing Japan from his wrath. There is no such warmth now; indeed, I am convinced that outside of prepared remarks, Trump doesn’t actually know Ishiba’s name — hence the latest moniker of "Mr. Japan.”

Upon winning, Ishiba immediately exiled former Prime Minister Taro Aso who, with his command of English and prodigious wealth, was the type of man who could earn Trump’s respect. Instead, he appointed Ryosei Akazawa as his tariff envoy — a longtime confidante from Ishiba’s rural region who, like the Japanese leader, has limited international experience.

Of course, the blame lies with Trump and it’s possible that even Abe would have been unable to dissuade him. Polls show the public supports Ishiba’s unwillingness to bow to every U.S. whim or illogical demand. But the prime minister’s refusal to bend on areas of relatively easy compromise are harder to understand, such as his insistence on a full removal of tariffs, or rejecting U.S. calls to boost defense spending, something that needs to be done anyway.

I harbor a suspicion that Ishiba is content to have a little sand in the gears of the U.S.-Japan relationship. He made headlines for his reaction to the letter notifying of 25% tariffs, blustering that the U.S. was "underestimating” Japan and calling for it to be "less dependent on America” — comments some took as anger with Trump.

A more independent Japan is something Ishiba has long craved, however; this merely gives him cover. China hawks have skeptically eyed his coziness with Beijing — which has made no secret of its desire to see him continue. Failure to agree a U.S. trade deal might, paradoxically, help move Japan closer to one of his goals.

It might be the only one he achieves, however. Even his supporters will feel betrayed that he hasn’t pursued issues he once championed, such as same-sex marriage or separate surnames for couples. Instead, he has flip-flopped on everything from the Bank of Japan’s rate hikes to nuclear power, as well as his ill-fated decision to call last year’s snap election.

The proximate cause of the LDP’s unpopularity is likely inflation. But Ishiba has failed to lay out any solutions, offering only yet another round of cash handouts. He has not proposed any economic agenda beyond rehashed slogans for "regional revitalization.” His lack of ambition is exemplified by his attempt to brand his vision as "Enjoyable Japan.” After it bombed, he quickly dropped the slogan.

His economic plans continued his predecessor Fumio Kishida’s equally unambitious policy, creating a vacuum that’s led to a campaign dominated by opposition talking points — from cutting the sales tax to cracking down on foreign workers. It’s little wonder voters are looking elsewhere.

Ishiba already set himself a low bar in Sunday’s vote, aiming to retain a majority in the Upper House with longtime coalition ally Komeito. But polling says even that might be tough. Reports suggest that even in such a rout, he may try to hang on, citing the tariff talks. But with a Jiji poll Thursday showing his approval rating taking another tumble, to a new low of just 20.8%, the odds are against him.

Yet even if he goes, the "chaotic era” of Japanese politics is just beginning. With the threat of tariffs, few in the LDP are likely to want the top job. And that means the fever might not break just yet.