Mizuho Financial Group expects record earnings again this fiscal year, even as profitability may be dented by U.S. tariff measures.

Japan’s third-largest lender forecast said Thursday that net income will likely climb 6.1% to ¥940 billion ($6.5 billion) in the year that started in April. That projection fell short of the ¥981.92 billion average estimate of analysts.

Mizuho and rival Japanese banks had bumper earnings last fiscal year, thanks in large part to the Bank of Japan’s decision to raise rates for the first time in 17 years. The nationwide drive to reduce corporate cross-shareholdings also boosted profit across the industry.

CEO Masahiro Kihara indicated that uncertainty in global trade has led the bank to a more conservative outlook as tariff measures by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump make business planning more unpredictable. Rival Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group said Wednesday it had set aside ¥90 billion for risks associated with tariffs and higher interest rates.

Mizuho will buy back up to ¥100 billion of its own shares, and said it expects a full-year dividend of ¥145 per share.

Speaking to reporters at a briefing in Tokyo, Kihara said that while the debt capital markets business had returned to normal after a pause in April, equity and M&A activity remains subdued. He added that market volatility is helping his firm’s fixed income division.

Meanwhile, Mizuho projected annual bad loan costs of ¥140 billion, up from the ¥51.6 billion for the year ended in March.