Ralph Cossa - The Japan Times

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Ralph Cossa

For Ralph Cossa's latest contributions to The Japan Times, see below:

COMMENTARY

Jan 22, 2001

Dealing with regional anxiety

HONOLULU -- With the inauguration of President George W. Bush's administrations, anxiety levels about future U.S. policy in Asia remain high. In Tokyo, there are apprehensions that Japan will be liked too much; that Washington will expect more from its steadfast ally than Japan is prepared to deliver. In Beijing there are concerns that China won't be liked enough, given Bush's references to it as a "strategic competitor." On the Korean Peninsula, there are fears that North Korea won't be liked at all; that a more hardline Republican administration will refuse to bargain with Pyongyang or adequately support South Korea's "sunshine policy." Elsewhere, there are questions about a continued U.S. commitment to the multilateral process and about how the new team will pursue traditional issues such as the promotion of democracy and human rights.

COMMENTARY

Jan 10, 2001

Tests loom for U.S.-China ties

How will the election of George W. Bush affect U.S.-China relations? The conventional wisdom was that a Gore administration would have been more favorable to China -- a questionable assumption based in part on the belief that Al Gore would be more inclined to continue President Bill Clinton's policies of engagement and support for "one China," the real litmus tests for Washington as far as Beijing is concerned. However, these policies have been consistently followed for years by Republican and Democratic administrations alike, and there is no reason to believe that any future U.S. administration is going to change them, absent some dramatic destabilizing action by Beijing.

COMMENTARY

Dec 18, 2000

Bush's role on the Korean Peninsula

HONOLULU -- South Koreans are openly nervous about what the election of George W. Bush portends for the Korean peace process. Many also seem privately hopeful that the incoming president might, as one security analyst put it, "save us from ourselves."

COMMENTARY

Dec 4, 2000

Kosovo's meaning for Japan

NATO's campaign against Yugoslavia last year was illegal but legitimate. This was a conclusion at a recent conference on the "Implications of the Kosovo Conflict on International Law," sponsored by the Institute for International Policy Studies in Tokyo. It was illegal because it did not have United Nations Security Council authorization. It was deemed to be legitimate, nonetheless, since U.N. approval was not a realistic option, thereby leaving NATO with only two choices (diplomacy and sanctions having already failed): do nothing in the face of blatant crimes against humanity or intervene militarily. Of these two "evils," intervention was the lesser sin.

COMMENTARY

Nov 15, 2000

Right move, wrong reason

As U.S. President Bill Clinton was getting ready to head for Asia for the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders' meeting in Brunei, the White House confirmed that he would not be visiting North Korea on this trip after all, since the recent U.S.-North Korean missile talks in Kuala Lumpur, while "detailed, constructive, and very substantive," still left "significant issues . . . to be explored and resolved." The decision to postpone the trip is the right one, even if it has been made for the wrong reason.

COMMENTARY

Aug 29, 2000

Pressure India and Pakistan

Like U.S. President Bill Clinton before him, Japanese Prime Minister Mori has just completed a trip to South Asia that has been high on hope and symbolism but disappointingly low on results. Both leaders argued that it was important to engage India and Pakistan in order to revive the global nonproliferation movement, which was seriously set back when first India and then Pakistan conducted nuclear-weapons tests in May 1998. But neither saw much progress in this direction, despite the considerable leverage both possess, given the desperate need both South Asian states have for economic assistance and investment, not to mention renewed international respectability.

COMMENTARY

Aug 21, 2000

China rethinks Taiwan policy

As China's leaders discuss future policies and strategies at the summer resort of Beidaihe, future cross-strait strategy is high on their list of priorities. President Jiang Zemin has been roundly and openly criticized for mishandling events leading up to Chen Shui-bian's election as Taiwan's first non-Nationalist Party leader. Some, particularly within the Chinese military, think Jiang was too soft, but most feel he painted himself (and China) into a corner, which now makes it difficult to deal constructively with a surprisingly conciliatory Chen.

COMMENTARY

Jul 22, 2000

Korean summit: A potential 'win-win' for all

There has been considerable debate since last month's historic North-South Korea summit about the meeting's impact on the peninsula's neighbors and benefactors. The conventional wisdom seems to be that China fared best. However, I would argue that all four major powers have come out ahead and that the United States, Japan, and even Russia may end up gaining relatively more in the long run. If managed carefully, the summit process can result in a multiple "win-win" outcome.

COMMENTARY

Jun 8, 2000

Hope for the two Koreas

All eyes will focus next week on Pyongyang for the June 12-14 historic summit between South Korean President Kim Dae Jung and his North Korean counterpart, Kim Jong Il. Last week's surprise visit to Beijing by the reclusive North Korean leader has added to the drama. While these events provide cause for optimism, the exuberance sweeping over the Korean Peninsula is premature.

COMMENTARY

Apr 5, 2000

The need to talk as equals

Are the United States and Japan ready for a more equal, mature security partnership? Signs are increasingly suggesting that the answer is yes, although both sides still seem more comfortable paying lip service to the idea than actually pursuing it.

COMMENTARY

Mar 30, 2000

For Taiwan and China, patience is key

BEIJING -- Now what? Since Taiwan has elected Chen Shui-bian of the Democratic Progressive Party as its next president, despite heavy-handed Chinese efforts to discourage this outcome, what does Beijing do next?

COMMENTARY

Feb 2, 2000

Is the U.S. on the right track?

As we enter the Year of the Dragon, U.S. bilateral relations with key states in Northeast Asia generally appear on track. Ties with America's two key allies, Japan and Korea, remain steady, as the Trilateral Cooperation and Oversight Group process has helped to keep all three in sync when dealing with their most contentious common concern, North Korea. Meanwhile, Pyongyang is on an apparent charm offensive (at least by North Korean standards). Previously strained ties with China also appear to be gradually mending.

COMMENTARY

Nov 3, 1999

The CTBT is not dead yet

"All bets are off! You'll see a lot of testing . . . . You'll have Russia testing, you'll have China testing, you'll have India testing, you'll have Pakistan testing . . . and we will be in a much, much more dangerous world."

COMMENTARY

Jul 31, 1999

Provocation or extortion?

The latest North Korean crisis, now that the mysterious underground facility at Kumchang-ri has proven to be nothing more than a huge hole in the ground, centers on the reportedly imminent launch of another multistage long-range missile. The last launch, on Aug. 31, 1998, involved an overflight of Japan during an apparent failed attempt to launch a satellite.

COMMENTARY

Jul 17, 1999

Cross-strait relations at risk

"What is Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui up to?" That remains the burning question, following Lee's apparent abandonment of the long-standing "one-China" policy that used to be the one important common denominator underwriting cross-strait relations and Sino-U.S. and Sino-Japanese relations regarding Taiwan. Lee has asserted that future cross-strait interaction should be based on the premise of "state-to-state" or at least "special state-to-state" relations: a pronouncement that drew a predictable, immediate, furious reaction from Beijing.

COMMENTARY

May 16, 1999

Enhancing regional security

In recent months, South Korean President Kim Dae Jung and Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi have separately called for the creation of a formal, governmental Northeast Asia Security Forum, to bring key regional states together to discuss common security interests and concerns. Russian President Boris Yeltsin has echoed these calls. Moscow has long been offended at being left out of the Four-Party Talks (among the two Koreas, the United States and China), believing that Russia should also have a seat at this table. Canadians and Mongolians also periodically call for a broader-based dialogue including their nations as well.

COMMENTARY

Apr 24, 1999

Test Pyongyang's sincerity

Senior officials from North and South Korea, China and the United States reassemble in Geneva April 24 for the fifth round of four-party talks aimed at replacing the existing 1953 Korean War armistice with a permanent peace treaty. The odds of a breakthrough appear slim, however, given North Korean Deputy Foreign Minister Kim Gye Gwan's prediction after round four that the talks would remain "empty" until Pyongyang's demands regarding the withdrawal of U.S. troops from the South are met. The U.S. and South Korea have steadfastly (and correctly) insisted that the U.S. military presence is for Washington and Seoul alone to decide: U.S. forces are not a bargaining chip.

COMMENTARY

Apr 9, 1999

Zhu's U.S. visit kicks off strategic dialogue

Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji came to Washington at the worst possible time, what with the current anti-China feeding frenzy in the press and on Capitol Hill. China's recent spate of human-rights violations and alleged espionage activities have made it open season on China -- "innocent until proven guilty" has little weight in the court of public opinion.

COMMENTARY

Mar 4, 1999

Sunshine alone isn't enough

South Korean President Kim Dae Jung's announcement of a proposed "package deal" with North Korea, put forth once again on the first anniversary of his inauguration, represents a valiant attempt to save two very important initiatives: his own constructive engagement policy with the North (also known as the "sunshine" policy), and the Agreed Framework/KEDO (Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization) process, which is aimed at halting North Korea's suspected nuclear weapons program. Both initiatives are in danger of coming apart, due to lukewarm support and domestic partisan politics in South Korea, the United States and Japan; both, I would argue, are worth saving.

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