HONOLULU -- With the inauguration of President George W. Bush's administrations, anxiety levels about future U.S. policy in Asia remain high. In Tokyo, there are apprehensions that Japan will be liked too much; that Washington will expect more from its steadfast ally than Japan is prepared to deliver. In Beijing there are concerns that China won't be liked enough, given Bush's references to it as a "strategic competitor." On the Korean Peninsula, there are fears that North Korea won't be liked at all; that a more hardline Republican administration will refuse to bargain with Pyongyang or adequately support South Korea's "sunshine policy." Elsewhere, there are questions about a continued U.S. commitment to the multilateral process and about how the new team will pursue traditional issues such as the promotion of democracy and human rights.
While trying to forecast U.S. behavior is always risky, I would argue that continuity is likely to be order of the day -- U.S. national interests do not change when administrations do. In most instances, policy adjustments will be tactical ones or represent shifts in emphasis. No early major surprises are anticipated, given that the Bush national security team contains many well-known (and well-respected) Asia hands.
Nonetheless, a certain amount of nervousness is to be expected whenever an administration changes -- remember the anxiety levels eight years ago when a relatively unknown Arkansas governor was about to take the helm in Washington? What follows are some suggestions to the Bush administration on how best to address these regional concerns.